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Mundo·Canadá

Maioria liberal no Parlamento canadense até 30 de junho?

Market icon
Mundo·Canadá

Maioria liberal no Parlamento canadense até 30 de junho?

Sim

97% acaso
Polymarket

$154,564 Vol.

Sim

97% acaso
Polymarket

$154,564 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals hold 170 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons, just two short of the 172 required for a majority government, following multiple recent floor-crossings including NDP MP Lori Idlout on March 11 and a Conservative defection in February. Three by-elections on April 13 in Liberal-leaning Toronto and Montreal-area ridings offer a clear path to victory, bolstered by national polls showing a 14-20 point Liberal lead that projects 200+ seats in a full election. Traders' near-certain consensus reflects this momentum and expectations of further defections or a snap election. Realistic shifts could arise from Conservative upsets in all by-elections, stalled crossings, and no federal vote before June 30 amid ongoing minority dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.

This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$154,564
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 4:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals hold 170 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons, just two short of the 172 required for a majority government, following multiple recent floor-crossings including NDP MP Lori Idlout on March 11 and a Conservative defection in February. Three by-elections on April 13 in Liberal-leaning Toronto and Montreal-area ridings offer a clear path to victory, bolstered by national polls showing a 14-20 point Liberal lead that projects 200+ seats in a full election. Traders' near-certain consensus reflects this momentum and expectations of further defections or a snap election. Realistic shifts could arise from Conservative upsets in all by-elections, stalled crossings, and no federal vote before June 30 amid ongoing minority dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.

This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$154,564
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 4:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Maioria liberal no Parlamento canadense até 30 de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Maioria liberal no Parlamento canadense até 30 de junho?" at 97%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Maioria liberal no Parlamento canadense até 30 de junho?" has generated $154.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Maioria liberal no Parlamento canadense até 30 de junho?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Maioria liberal no Parlamento canadense até 30 de junho?" is "Maioria liberal no Parlamento canadense até 30 de junho?" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Maioria liberal no Parlamento canadense até 30 de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.