Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, elected in April 2025 with 169 House of Commons seats just shy of a majority, has solidified its position through multiple opposition floor-crossings and survived key confidence votes on budgets in late 2025 and February 2026. Recent polls show Liberals leading Conservatives by 8–12 points amid Carney's high approval ratings, diminishing incentives for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to table a no-confidence motion. Three byelections called for April 13 could deliver a working majority, while Carney has ruled out proroguing Parliament or a spring snap election. With no immediate threats to stability, traders price negligible odds of another federal election by June 30.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$72,741 Vol.
$72,741 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$72,741 Vol.
$72,741 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, elected in April 2025 with 169 House of Commons seats just shy of a majority, has solidified its position through multiple opposition floor-crossings and survived key confidence votes on budgets in late 2025 and February 2026. Recent polls show Liberals leading Conservatives by 8–12 points amid Carney's high approval ratings, diminishing incentives for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to table a no-confidence motion. Three byelections called for April 13 could deliver a working majority, while Carney has ruled out proroguing Parliament or a spring snap election. With no immediate threats to stability, traders price negligible odds of another federal election by June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET
Volume
$72,741Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, elected in April 2025 with 169 House of Commons seats just shy of a majority, has solidified its position through multiple opposition floor-crossings and survived key confidence votes on budgets in late 2025 and February 2026. Recent polls show Liberals leading Conservatives by 8–12 points amid Carney's high approval ratings, diminishing incentives for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to table a no-confidence motion. Three byelections called for April 13 could deliver a working majority, while Carney has ruled out proroguing Parliament or a spring snap election. With no immediate threats to stability, traders price negligible odds of another federal election by June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$72,741Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, elected in April 2025 with 169 House of Commons seats just shy of a majority, has solidified its position through multiple opposition floor-crossings and survived key confidence votes on budgets in late 2025 and February 2026. Recent polls show Liberals leading Conservatives by 8–12 points amid Carney's high approval ratings, diminishing incentives for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to table a no-confidence motion. Three byelections called for April 13 could deliver a working majority, while Carney has ruled out proroguing Parliament or a spring snap election. With no immediate threats to stability, traders price negligible odds of another federal election by June 30.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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