Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, formed after the April 2025 snap election, has maintained stability in the House of Commons, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 95% for another federal election called by June 30, 2026. Carney stated in late January 2026 that his administration is focused on delivering results rather than a spring vote, following survival of a key confidence vote on the federal budget in November 2025. No recent defeats on supply bills or non-confidence motions have emerged, despite ongoing minority math challenges from two Conservative MPs switching sides. Upcoming spring 2026 byelections could test seat dynamics, but absent a parliamentary collapse or explicit dissolution request to the Governor General, traders see slim odds of triggering a snap election before the fixed-date cycle resumes in October 2029. Late-breaking scandals or economic shocks remain the primary upset risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$72,755 Vol.
$72,755 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$72,755 Vol.
$72,755 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, formed after the April 2025 snap election, has maintained stability in the House of Commons, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 95% for another federal election called by June 30, 2026. Carney stated in late January 2026 that his administration is focused on delivering results rather than a spring vote, following survival of a key confidence vote on the federal budget in November 2025. No recent defeats on supply bills or non-confidence motions have emerged, despite ongoing minority math challenges from two Conservative MPs switching sides. Upcoming spring 2026 byelections could test seat dynamics, but absent a parliamentary collapse or explicit dissolution request to the Governor General, traders see slim odds of triggering a snap election before the fixed-date cycle resumes in October 2029. Late-breaking scandals or economic shocks remain the primary upset risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET
Volume
$72,755Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, formed after the April 2025 snap election, has maintained stability in the House of Commons, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 95% for another federal election called by June 30, 2026. Carney stated in late January 2026 that his administration is focused on delivering results rather than a spring vote, following survival of a key confidence vote on the federal budget in November 2025. No recent defeats on supply bills or non-confidence motions have emerged, despite ongoing minority math challenges from two Conservative MPs switching sides. Upcoming spring 2026 byelections could test seat dynamics, but absent a parliamentary collapse or explicit dissolution request to the Governor General, traders see slim odds of triggering a snap election before the fixed-date cycle resumes in October 2029. Late-breaking scandals or economic shocks remain the primary upset risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$72,755Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, formed after the April 2025 snap election, has maintained stability in the House of Commons, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 95% for another federal election called by June 30, 2026. Carney stated in late January 2026 that his administration is focused on delivering results rather than a spring vote, following survival of a key confidence vote on the federal budget in November 2025. No recent defeats on supply bills or non-confidence motions have emerged, despite ongoing minority math challenges from two Conservative MPs switching sides. Upcoming spring 2026 byelections could test seat dynamics, but absent a parliamentary collapse or explicit dissolution request to the Governor General, traders see slim odds of triggering a snap election before the fixed-date cycle resumes in October 2029. Late-breaking scandals or economic shocks remain the primary upset risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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