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Política·Pierre

Poilievre sairá como líder dos conservadores até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

Market icon
Política·Pierre

Poilievre sairá como líder dos conservadores até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

16% acaso
Polymarket

$116,773 Vol.

Sim

16% acaso
Polymarket

$116,773 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre's position remains secure following his overwhelming 87.4% victory in the mandatory post-election leadership review on January 31, 2026, despite the party's defeat to Mark Carney's Liberals in the April 2025 federal election. Traders' 84.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this strong delegate endorsement amid ongoing party regrouping, with no subsequent leadership challenges, resignations, or floor crossings reported in the past 30 days. Poilievre continues actively as Leader of the Opposition, recently calling for a federal fuel tax suspension through year-end amid gas price spikes linked to Middle East tensions. Absent major scandals or polling collapses, the wisdom of crowds anticipates stability through December 31, 2026, ahead of the next scheduled federal vote.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$116,773
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre's position remains secure following his overwhelming 87.4% victory in the mandatory post-election leadership review on January 31, 2026, despite the party's defeat to Mark Carney's Liberals in the April 2025 federal election. Traders' 84.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this strong delegate endorsement amid ongoing party regrouping, with no subsequent leadership challenges, resignations, or floor crossings reported in the past 30 days. Poilievre continues actively as Leader of the Opposition, recently calling for a federal fuel tax suspension through year-end amid gas price spikes linked to Middle East tensions. Absent major scandals or polling collapses, the wisdom of crowds anticipates stability through December 31, 2026, ahead of the next scheduled federal vote.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$116,773
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Poilievre sairá como líder dos conservadores até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Poilievre deixará de ser líder dos Conservadores até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Poilievre sairá como líder dos conservadores até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" has generated $116.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Poilievre sairá como líder dos conservadores até 31 de dezembro de 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Poilievre sairá como líder dos conservadores até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" is "Poilievre deixará de ser líder dos Conservadores até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Poilievre sairá como líder dos conservadores até 31 de dezembro de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.