Trader consensus heavily favors Pierre Poilievre remaining Conservative Party leader through December 31, 2026, at 85.5% implied probability for "No," anchored by his resounding 87.4% approval in the January 2026 party leadership review at the Calgary convention, where delegates reaffirmed him despite the 2025 federal election loss to Mark Carney's Liberals. Poilievre regained a parliamentary seat via August 2025 by-election victory after losing his prior riding, bolstering his position amid four MP defections. Recent Angus Reid polling from late March shows Carney leading in net favorability by 50 points and Conservatives trailing nationally, yet grassroots loyalty and absence of organized caucus revolt sustain stability, with no-confidence mechanisms requiring convention triggers absent until 2027 policy convention.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$116,778 Vol.
$116,778 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$116,778 Vol.
$116,778 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Pierre Poilievre remaining Conservative Party leader through December 31, 2026, at 85.5% implied probability for "No," anchored by his resounding 87.4% approval in the January 2026 party leadership review at the Calgary convention, where delegates reaffirmed him despite the 2025 federal election loss to Mark Carney's Liberals. Poilievre regained a parliamentary seat via August 2025 by-election victory after losing his prior riding, bolstering his position amid four MP defections. Recent Angus Reid polling from late March shows Carney leading in net favorability by 50 points and Conservatives trailing nationally, yet grassroots loyalty and absence of organized caucus revolt sustain stability, with no-confidence mechanisms requiring convention triggers absent until 2027 policy convention.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$116,778Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Pierre Poilievre remaining Conservative Party leader through December 31, 2026, at 85.5% implied probability for "No," anchored by his resounding 87.4% approval in the January 2026 party leadership review at the Calgary convention, where delegates reaffirmed him despite the 2025 federal election loss to Mark Carney's Liberals. Poilievre regained a parliamentary seat via August 2025 by-election victory after losing his prior riding, bolstering his position amid four MP defections. Recent Angus Reid polling from late March shows Carney leading in net favorability by 50 points and Conservatives trailing nationally, yet grassroots loyalty and absence of organized caucus revolt sustain stability, with no-confidence mechanisms requiring convention triggers absent until 2027 policy convention.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$116,778Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors Pierre Poilievre remaining Conservative Party leader through December 31, 2026, at 85.5% implied probability for "No," anchored by his resounding 87.4% approval in the January 2026 party leadership review at the Calgary convention, where delegates reaffirmed him despite the 2025 federal election loss to Mark Carney's Liberals. Poilievre regained a parliamentary seat via August 2025 by-election victory after losing his prior riding, bolstering his position amid four MP defections. Recent Angus Reid polling from late March shows Carney leading in net favorability by 50 points and Conservatives trailing nationally, yet grassroots loyalty and absence of organized caucus revolt sustain stability, with no-confidence mechanisms requiring convention triggers absent until 2027 policy convention.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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