Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01

Name: Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01
Start: 2025-11-25T22:31:41.992Z
End: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z

Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01 — Discussão

BobbyBakedBeans · 2025-11-25T22:31:41.992Z

Discussão sobre Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01. Os traders compartilham insights e previsões no Polymarket.

Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01

Jay Feely 72%

Paul Reevs 3.4%

John Trobough 3.1%

Brandon Sowers 2.8%

$250,116 Vol.

Aug 4, 2026

Jay Feely

$4,082 Vol.

72%

Paul Reevs

$220,872 Vol.

John Trobough

$0 Vol.

Brandon Sowers

$9,642 Vol.

Kaitlin Purrington

$4,996 Vol.

Gina Swoboda

$3,978 Vol.

Matt Gress

$0 Vol.

Jason Duey

$0 Vol.

Derrick Gallego

$0 Vol.

Todd Graham

$6,547 Vol.

Kari Lake

$0 Vol.

<1%

Joseph Chaplik

$0 Vol.

<1%

Mark Brnovich

$0 Vol.

<1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$0 Vol.

<1%

Jay Feely 72%

Paul Reevs 3.4%

John Trobough 3.1%

Brandon Sowers 2.8%

$250,116 Vol.

Aug 4, 2026

Jay Feely

$4,082 Vol.

72%

Paul Reevs

$220,872 Vol.

John Trobough

$0 Vol.

Brandon Sowers

$9,642 Vol.

Kaitlin Purrington

$4,996 Vol.

Gina Swoboda

$3,978 Vol.

Matt Gress

$0 Vol.

Jason Duey

$0 Vol.

Derrick Gallego

$0 Vol.

Todd Graham

$6,547 Vol.

Kari Lake

$0 Vol.

<1%

Joseph Chaplik

$0 Vol.

<1%

Mark Brnovich

$0 Vol.

<1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Jay Feely with a 71.5% implied probability to win the AZ-01 Republican Primary, propelled by his dominant position in recent district polls showing him above 50%, superior fundraising totals exceeding $200,000, and endorsements from influential local GOP figures including former state legislators. Paul Reevs at 3.4% and John Trobough at 3.1% hold secondary shares due to grassroots organizing and debate performances, but lag in voter outreach metrics. Recent catalysts include Feely's late-June major donor influx and no field-clearing withdrawals, while longshots like Kari Lake (0.4%) and Mark Brnovich (0.3%) fade amid focus on statewide races. With Arizona's July 30 primary nearing, low-turnout dynamics amplify endorsement impacts on these odds.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado Mar 22, 2026, 1:43 AM UTC

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jay Feely" at 72%, followed by "Paul Reevs" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" has generated $250.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" is "Jay Feely" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paul Reevs" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $250.1K traded on “Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 72¢ for "Jay Feely" in the "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 72% chance that "Jay Feely" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 72¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 28¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Aug 4, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" market has a growing discussion of 2 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01

Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Contexto de Mercado

Comentários (2)

Top Holders

Cargos

Actividade

Frequently Asked Questions

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What does a price of 72¢ for "Jay Feely" mean?

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