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Política·Assalto

Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?

Market icon
Política·Assalto

Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?

9% acaso
Polymarket
NOVO
9% acaso
Polymarket
NOVO
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Four masked thieves executed a swift overnight heist at Italy's Magnani Rocca Foundation near Parma on March 22-23, stealing three Impressionist masterpieces—"Fish" by Renoir, "Still Life with Cherries" by Cézanne, and "Odalisque on the Terrace" by Matisse—valued over $10 million, escaping in under three minutes across the museum grounds. Italian Carabinieri and local police investigations continue without arrests, suspects, or recovery leads as of early April, amid expert warnings of a rising wave of museum thefts following prior incidents like the Louvre robbery. Traders' 91.5% consensus on "No" reflects the tight 12-day window to April 15 resolution, historical rarity of rapid art recoveries, and absence of breakthroughs despite heightened scrutiny.

On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.

If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$453
Data de Término
15 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Four masked thieves executed a swift overnight heist at Italy's Magnani Rocca Foundation near Parma on March 22-23, stealing three Impressionist masterpieces—"Fish" by Renoir, "Still Life with Cherries" by Cézanne, and "Odalisque on the Terrace" by Matisse—valued over $10 million, escaping in under three minutes across the museum grounds. Italian Carabinieri and local police investigations continue without arrests, suspects, or recovery leads as of early April, amid expert warnings of a rising wave of museum thefts following prior incidents like the Louvre robbery. Traders' 91.5% consensus on "No" reflects the tight 12-day window to April 15 resolution, historical rarity of rapid art recoveries, and absence of breakthroughs despite heightened scrutiny.

On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.

If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$453
Data de Término
15 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.