Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.7% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting official statistics from the Suez Canal Authority and industry trackers like Alphaliner showing January's 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—as emblematic of sustained Red Sea security risks from Houthi threats. Despite trial voyages by Maersk and CMA CGM in late 2025 and early 2026, major container lines persisted with Cape of Good Hope rerouting, keeping quarterly volumes roughly 60-80% below pre-2023 averages of 1,200+. Tail risks include abrupt geopolitical de-escalation or data revisions, though traders assign negligible odds amid absent mass resumption signals ahead of Q2 contract negotiations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMais de 1 mil trânsitos de navios porta-contêineres do Canal de Suez no primeiro trimestre de 2026?
Mais de 1 mil trânsitos de navios porta-contêineres do Canal de Suez no primeiro trimestre de 2026?
Sim
$52,387 Vol.
$52,387 Vol.
31 mar 2026
Sim
$52,387 Vol.
$52,387 Vol.
31 mar 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.7% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting official statistics from the Suez Canal Authority and industry trackers like Alphaliner showing January's 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—as emblematic of sustained Red Sea security risks from Houthi threats. Despite trial voyages by Maersk and CMA CGM in late 2025 and early 2026, major container lines persisted with Cape of Good Hope rerouting, keeping quarterly volumes roughly 60-80% below pre-2023 averages of 1,200+. Tail risks include abrupt geopolitical de-escalation or data revisions, though traders assign negligible odds amid absent mass resumption signals ahead of Q2 contract negotiations.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$52,387Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.7% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting official statistics from the Suez Canal Authority and industry trackers like Alphaliner showing January's 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—as emblematic of sustained Red Sea security risks from Houthi threats. Despite trial voyages by Maersk and CMA CGM in late 2025 and early 2026, major container lines persisted with Cape of Good Hope rerouting, keeping quarterly volumes roughly 60-80% below pre-2023 averages of 1,200+. Tail risks include abrupt geopolitical de-escalation or data revisions, though traders assign negligible odds amid absent mass resumption signals ahead of Q2 contract negotiations.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Volume
$52,387Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.7% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting official statistics from the Suez Canal Authority and industry trackers like Alphaliner showing January's 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—as emblematic of sustained Red Sea security risks from Houthi threats. Despite trial voyages by Maersk and CMA CGM in late 2025 and early 2026, major container lines persisted with Cape of Good Hope rerouting, keeping quarterly volumes roughly 60-80% below pre-2023 averages of 1,200+. Tail risks include abrupt geopolitical de-escalation or data revisions, though traders assign negligible odds amid absent mass resumption signals ahead of Q2 contract negotiations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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