U.S. military forces conducted targeted strikes on Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a surgical operation amid escalating tensions over drug trafficking and regime instability, though Polymarket traders and the platform debate whether this qualifies as a full "invasion" under market rules, leaving it unresolved. Subsequent de-escalation includes the U.S. and post-Maduro interim government agreeing to restore diplomatic ties on March 5, with the U.S. embassy resuming operations on March 30, signaling normalization and economic cooperation on oil and minerals. No further airstrikes, troop deployments, or escalation signals reported in the past month, driving trader consensus toward low implied probability of qualifying military invasion by December 31, 2026, absent renewed provocations or diplomatic breakdowns.