How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

<$100b 84.9%

$200–500b 9%

$100–200b 5.4%

$500b–1t <1%

$4,121,297 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

<$100b
$1,156,259 Vol.
85%

$100–200b
$1,012,786 Vol.
5%

$200–500b
$609,201 Vol.
9%

$500b–1t
$566,677 Vol.
<1%

$1–2t
$407,765 Vol.
<1%

$2t+
$368,995 Vol.
<1%

Rules

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf). This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

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How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

<$100b 84.9%

$200–500b 9%

$100–200b 5.4%

$500b–1t <1%

$4,121,297 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

<$100b

$1,156,259 Vol.

85%

$100–200b

$1,012,786 Vol.

$200–500b

$609,201 Vol.

$500b–1t

$566,677 Vol.

<1%

$1–2t

$407,765 Vol.

<1%

$2t+

$368,995 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$4,121,297

End Date

Feb 28, 2026

Created At

Apr 15, 2025, 6:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

12%

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

21%

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