Surging energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted Eurozone headline inflation to 3.0% in April 2026, up sharply from 1.9% in February and prompting a clear shift in trader sentiment toward tighter policy. With the ECB deposit facility rate still at 2.00% after the April 30 hold, market-implied odds assign an 85.5% probability to a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 Governing Council meeting, reflecting broad consensus that the central bank will act to contain second-round effects while acknowledging downside risks to growth from weaker Q1 GDP. Recent economist surveys align with this path, forecasting at least one additional increase later in the year, though the ECB’s data-dependent stance and lack of pre-commitment leave room for adjustment if May CPI or labor data moderate the inflation outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 86%
No change 13.2%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,573 Vol.
$275,573 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
25 bps Increase
86%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 86%
No change 13.2%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,573 Vol.
$275,573 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$55,697 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$43,962 Vol.
<1%
No change
$52,213 Vol.
13%
25 bps Increase
$72,057 Vol.
86%
50+ bps increase
$53,209 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Surging energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted Eurozone headline inflation to 3.0% in April 2026, up sharply from 1.9% in February and prompting a clear shift in trader sentiment toward tighter policy. With the ECB deposit facility rate still at 2.00% after the April 30 hold, market-implied odds assign an 85.5% probability to a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 Governing Council meeting, reflecting broad consensus that the central bank will act to contain second-round effects while acknowledging downside risks to growth from weaker Q1 GDP. Recent economist surveys align with this path, forecasting at least one additional increase later in the year, though the ECB’s data-dependent stance and lack of pre-commitment leave room for adjustment if May CPI or labor data moderate the inflation outlook.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$275,573End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Surging energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted Eurozone headline inflation to 3.0% in April 2026, up sharply from 1.9% in February and prompting a clear shift in trader sentiment toward tighter policy. With the ECB deposit facility rate still at 2.00% after the April 30 hold, market-implied odds assign an 85.5% probability to a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 Governing Council meeting, reflecting broad consensus that the central bank will act to contain second-round effects while acknowledging downside risks to growth from weaker Q1 GDP. Recent economist surveys align with this path, forecasting at least one additional increase later in the year, though the ECB’s data-dependent stance and lack of pre-commitment leave room for adjustment if May CPI or labor data moderate the inflation outlook.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$275,573End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Surging energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted Eurozone headline inflation to 3.0% in April 2026, up sharply from 1.9% in February and prompting a clear shift in trader sentiment toward tighter policy. With the ECB deposit facility rate still at 2.00% after the April 30 hold, market-implied odds assign an 85.5% probability to a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 Governing Council meeting, reflecting broad consensus that the central bank will act to contain second-round effects while acknowledging downside risks to growth from weaker Q1 GDP. Recent economist surveys align with this path, forecasting at least one additional increase later in the year, though the ECB’s data-dependent stance and lack of pre-commitment leave room for adjustment if May CPI or labor data moderate the inflation outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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