Recent Middle East energy price spikes have elevated eurozone inflation risks, driving near-unanimous market-implied odds for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting. April data showed rising shorter-term inflation expectations alongside a resilient labor market, heightening concerns over second-round effects and prompting preemptive tightening consistent with economist surveys assigning over 90% probability to the move. The ECB's April 30 hold at 2.00% left the door open for action, with no pre-commitment to a specific path. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or swift energy price reversals remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome ahead of the decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Hausse de 25 points de base 99.2%
No change <1%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$781,016 Vol.
$781,016 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
Hausse de 25 points de base
99%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Hausse de 25 points de base 99.2%
No change <1%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$781,016 Vol.
$781,016 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
Hausse de 25 points de base
99%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East energy price spikes have elevated eurozone inflation risks, driving near-unanimous market-implied odds for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting. April data showed rising shorter-term inflation expectations alongside a resilient labor market, heightening concerns over second-round effects and prompting preemptive tightening consistent with economist surveys assigning over 90% probability to the move. The ECB's April 30 hold at 2.00% left the door open for action, with no pre-commitment to a specific path. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or swift energy price reversals remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome ahead of the decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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