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Politics·DHS

When will the DHS shutdown end?

Market icon
Politics·DHS

When will the DHS shutdown end?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

April 13-16 29.7%

After April 30 28.5%

April 25-28 13.6%

April 17-20 8.5%

Polymarket

$57,418 Vol.

April 13-16 29.7%

After April 30 28.5%

April 25-28 13.6%

April 17-20 8.5%

Polymarket

$57,418 Vol.

Before April 1

$25,871 Vol.

3%

April 1-4

$1,004 Vol.

7%

April 5-8

$1,001 Vol.

14%

April 9-12

$846 Vol.

11%

April 13-16

$6,720 Vol.

30%

April 17-20

$486 Vol.

9%

Arpil 21-24

$17,153 Vol.

4%

April 25-28

$1,608 Vol.

14%

April 29-30

$1,658 Vol.

9%

After April 30

$1,070 Vol.

29%

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.House Republicans' rejection of a Senate-passed continuing resolution yesterday, coupled with Democrats blocking multiple House funding bills for full Department of Homeland Security operations, has deadlocked negotiations and prolonged the partial shutdown now in its sixth week. Disagreements center on immigration enforcement funding for ICE and border security, amid mounting TSA delays and airport disruptions prompting President Trump's executive order to pay affected agents. Trader consensus splits tightly between mid-April resolution—via a short-term CR ahead of Easter recess—and extension past April 30, reflecting bipartisan brinkmanship and whip counts showing slim margins for compromise. A bipartisan deal or procedural vote could tip odds toward earlier bins, while further rejections favor prolonged shutdown.

House Republicans' rejection of a Senate-passed continuing resolution yesterday, coupled with Democrats blocking multiple House funding bills for full Department of Homeland Security operations, has deadlocked negotiations and prolonged the partial shutdown now in its sixth week. Disagreements center on immigration enforcement funding for ICE and border security, amid mounting TSA delays and airport disruptions prompting President Trump's executive order to pay affected agents. Trader consensus splits tightly between mid-April resolution—via a short-term CR ahead of Easter recess—and extension past April 30, reflecting bipartisan brinkmanship and whip counts showing slim margins for compromise. A bipartisan deal or procedural vote could tip odds toward earlier bins, while further rejections favor prolonged shutdown.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.House Republicans' rejection of a Senate-passed continuing resolution yesterday, coupled with Democrats blocking multiple House funding bills for full Department of Homeland Security operations, has deadlocked negotiations and prolonged the partial shutdown now in its sixth week. Disagreements center on immigration enforcement funding for ICE and border security, amid mounting TSA delays and airport disruptions prompting President Trump's executive order to pay affected agents. Trader consensus splits tightly between mid-April resolution—via a short-term CR ahead of Easter recess—and extension past April 30, reflecting bipartisan brinkmanship and whip counts showing slim margins for compromise. A bipartisan deal or procedural vote could tip odds toward earlier bins, while further rejections favor prolonged shutdown.

House Republicans' rejection of a Senate-passed continuing resolution yesterday, coupled with Democrats blocking multiple House funding bills for full Department of Homeland Security operations, has deadlocked negotiations and prolonged the partial shutdown now in its sixth week. Disagreements center on immigration enforcement funding for ICE and border security, amid mounting TSA delays and airport disruptions prompting President Trump's executive order to pay affected agents. Trader consensus splits tightly between mid-April resolution—via a short-term CR ahead of Easter recess—and extension past April 30, reflecting bipartisan brinkmanship and whip counts showing slim margins for compromise. A bipartisan deal or procedural vote could tip odds toward earlier bins, while further rejections favor prolonged shutdown.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"When will the DHS shutdown end?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 13-16" at 30%, followed by "After April 30" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "When will the DHS shutdown end?" has generated $57.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "When will the DHS shutdown end?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will the DHS shutdown end?" is "April 13-16" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "After April 30" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will the DHS shutdown end?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.