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Finance·Equities

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in March?

Market icon
Finance·Equities

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in March?

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

$6,500-$6,600 33%

<$6,400 29%

$6,400-$6,500 24%

$6,700-$6,800 16%

Polymarket
NEW

$6,500-$6,600 33%

<$6,400 29%

$6,400-$6,500 24%

$6,700-$6,800 16%

Polymarket
NEW

<$6,400

$928 Vol.

24%

$6,400-$6,500

$130 Vol.

24%

$6,500-$6,600

$943 Vol.

27%

$6,600-$6,700

$57 Vol.

22%

$6,700-$6,800

$580 Vol.

13%

$6,800-$6,900

$1,103 Vol.

4%

$6,900-$7,000

$0 Vol.

2%

$7,000-$7,100

$37 Vol.

1%

$7,100-$7,200

$0 Vol.

1%

$7,200-$7,300

$0 Vol.

<1%

>$7,300

$206 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin race for the S&P 500 March close, with <$6,400 (26%), $6,500-$6,600 (25.5%), and $6,400-$6,500 (24%) dominating implied probabilities amid heightened uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy path. The index retreated 2% last week from 6,600 peaks after February CPI printed at 3.2% year-over-year—hotter than the 3.0% consensus—dampening March rate cut odds to 25% per fed funds futures, while robust nonfarm payrolls (275,000 added) signaled labor market resilience curbing downside risks. Megacap tech earnings beats provided counterbalance, but sticky inflation dynamics and the March 19 FOMC hold differentiate the closely contested bins, with traders eyeing Friday's preliminary Q1 GDP for final swings before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$3,984
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin race for the S&P 500 March close, with <$6,400 (26%), $6,500-$6,600 (25.5%), and $6,400-$6,500 (24%) dominating implied probabilities amid heightened uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy path. The index retreated 2% last week from 6,600 peaks after February CPI printed at 3.2% year-over-year—hotter than the 3.0% consensus—dampening March rate cut odds to 25% per fed funds futures, while robust nonfarm payrolls (275,000 added) signaled labor market resilience curbing downside risks. Megacap tech earnings beats provided counterbalance, but sticky inflation dynamics and the March 19 FOMC hold differentiate the closely contested bins, with traders eyeing Friday's preliminary Q1 GDP for final swings before resolution.

Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin race for the S&P 500 March close, with <$6,400 (26%), $6,500-$6,600 (25.5%), and $6,400-$6,500 (24%) dominating implied probabilities amid heightened uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy path. The index retreated 2% last week from 6,600 peaks after February CPI printed at 3.2% year-over-year—hotter than the 3.0% consensus—dampening March rate cut odds to 25% per fed funds futures, while robust nonfarm payrolls (275,000 added) signaled labor market resilience curbing downside risks. Megacap tech earnings beats provided counterbalance, but sticky inflation dynamics and the March 19 FOMC hold differentiate the closely contested bins, with traders eyeing Friday's preliminary Q1 GDP for final swings before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "$6,500-$6,600" at 27%, followed by "<$6,400" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in March?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in March?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in March?" is "$6,500-$6,600" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<$6,400" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.