Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Meta (META) closing the week of March 23 above the threshold, driven by sustained bullish momentum from Q4 earnings beating expectations on AI monetization and ad revenue growth exceeding 25% year-over-year. Shares recently surged past $500 amid hype around Llama 3.1 model advancements, outpacing rivals like OpenAI in open-source efficiency, bolstering investor confidence in Meta's superintelligence race positioning. Competitive pressures from TikTok's potential U.S. ban add upside, potentially funneling users to Instagram Reels. Watch Friday's close on March 28 for resolution, with risks from broader market volatility tied to Fed rate signals; historical post-earnings drifts suggest 60-70% implied probability of holding gains if macro conditions stabilize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$550
93%
$560
87%
$570
79%
$580
70%
$590
58%
$600
43%
$610
32%
$620
24%
$630
17%
$640
11%
$650
8%
$660
14%
$670
8%
$75 Vol.
$550
93%
$560
87%
$570
79%
$580
70%
$590
58%
$600
43%
$610
32%
$620
24%
$630
17%
$640
11%
$650
8%
$660
14%
$670
8%
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Meta (META) closing the week of March 23 above the threshold, driven by sustained bullish momentum from Q4 earnings beating expectations on AI monetization and ad revenue growth exceeding 25% year-over-year. Shares recently surged past $500 amid hype around Llama 3.1 model advancements, outpacing rivals like OpenAI in open-source efficiency, bolstering investor confidence in Meta's superintelligence race positioning. Competitive pressures from TikTok's potential U.S. ban add upside, potentially funneling users to Instagram Reels. Watch Friday's close on March 28 for resolution, with risks from broader market volatility tied to Fed rate signals; historical post-earnings drifts suggest 60-70% implied probability of holding gains if macro conditions stabilize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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