Spain tops trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability, narrowly ahead per latest FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings after dominant March internationals, including a key friendly win over Argentina that kept their points lead slim over France (now second) and defending champions Argentina. England's solid qualification campaign and depth with players like Bellingham maintain their 12.8% standing, while France's ascent reflects Mbappé-led form despite a recent loss to Brazil. The expanded 48-team format, advancing 32 sides via top-two group finishes plus best third-placers, combined with recent group draw rankings favoring manageable paths for elites (e.g., Germany's easiest draw), fosters tight odds amid no dominant favorite and balanced head-to-head histories. Pending March 31 playoff finals introduce minor uncertainty for group compositions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$427,811,848 Vol.
$427,811,848 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$427,811,848 Vol.
$427,811,848 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain tops trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability, narrowly ahead per latest FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings after dominant March internationals, including a key friendly win over Argentina that kept their points lead slim over France (now second) and defending champions Argentina. England's solid qualification campaign and depth with players like Bellingham maintain their 12.8% standing, while France's ascent reflects Mbappé-led form despite a recent loss to Brazil. The expanded 48-team format, advancing 32 sides via top-two group finishes plus best third-placers, combined with recent group draw rankings favoring manageable paths for elites (e.g., Germany's easiest draw), fosters tight odds amid no dominant favorite and balanced head-to-head histories. Pending March 31 playoff finals introduce minor uncertainty for group compositions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions