Spain's overwhelming 83.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite stems from their perch as FIFA world number one, hosting at RCDE Stadium in Barcelona, and boasting superior squad depth with Lamine Yamal returning amid a strong Nations League campaign. Egypt's upset potential at 5.3% is diminished by Mohamed Salah's confirmed hamstring injury absence—announced last week and replaced in the squad—despite the Pharaohs' morale-boosting 4-0 away clean-sheet thrashing of Saudi Arabia on March 27 via goals from Islam Issa, Trézéguet, Zizo, and another. Short four-day turnaround and travel from Jeddah further hinder Egypt, echoing Spain's 2-1 group-stage Olympic victory over them in 2024, while a draw at 11% accounts for friendly unpredictability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

If Egypt wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 9:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.fifa.comResolver
0x69c47De9D...

If Egypt wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 9:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.fifa.comResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spain's overwhelming 83.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite stems from their perch as FIFA world number one, hosting at RCDE Stadium in Barcelona, and boasting superior squad depth with Lamine Yamal returning amid a strong Nations League campaign. Egypt's upset potential at 5.3% is diminished by Mohamed Salah's confirmed hamstring injury absence—announced last week and replaced in the squad—despite the Pharaohs' morale-boosting 4-0 away clean-sheet thrashing of Saudi Arabia on March 27 via goals from Islam Issa, Trézéguet, Zizo, and another. Short four-day turnaround and travel from Jeddah further hinder Egypt, echoing Spain's 2-1 group-stage Olympic victory over them in 2024, while a draw at 11% accounts for friendly unpredictability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions