Spain's trader consensus lead at 15.8% stems from topping UEFA qualifiers unbeaten with +19 goal difference and Lamine Yamal's explosive form, bolstered by their Euro 2024 title and manageable Group H path against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. England (12.8%), France (11.1%), Argentina (9.8%), and Brazil (8.6%) trail closely after dominant qualifying campaigns—England perfect in Group K, France cruising theirs, CONMEBOL stars like Argentina securing top-six spots—yet the expanded 48-team format advances top-two finishers plus eight best thirds, evening knockout paths amid tough draws like France's clash with Norway's Haaland and Senegal. Recent March friendlies, including France's 2-1 win over Brazil, and playoff resolutions underscore the wide-open field with Mbappé fitness concerns and veteran depth questions keeping probabilities bunched.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$415,940,613 Vol.
$415,940,613 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$415,940,613 Vol.
$415,940,613 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain's trader consensus lead at 15.8% stems from topping UEFA qualifiers unbeaten with +19 goal difference and Lamine Yamal's explosive form, bolstered by their Euro 2024 title and manageable Group H path against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. England (12.8%), France (11.1%), Argentina (9.8%), and Brazil (8.6%) trail closely after dominant qualifying campaigns—England perfect in Group K, France cruising theirs, CONMEBOL stars like Argentina securing top-six spots—yet the expanded 48-team format advances top-two finishers plus eight best thirds, evening knockout paths amid tough draws like France's clash with Norway's Haaland and Senegal. Recent March friendlies, including France's 2-1 win over Brazil, and playoff resolutions underscore the wide-open field with Mbappé fitness concerns and veteran depth questions keeping probabilities bunched.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions