Trader consensus on an 80.5% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 8.0 or higher event anywhere on Earth by June 30—reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismicity, backed by USGS monitoring showing no anomalous precursors across global fault systems. A powerful 7.7-magnitude quake off Japan's northeast coast on April 20 slightly elevated short-term risks, prompting a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for a 1% chance of M8+ in the following week (now expired without incident), yet baseline annual M8+ frequency remains about one event worldwide. Ongoing USGS seismic networks report steady activity without unusual strain buildup in high-risk zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough, justifying the strong "No" lean amid historical rarity over the two-month window. Key updates expected from daily earthquake catalogs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$56,966 Vol.
$56,966 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$56,966 Vol.
$56,966 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on an 80.5% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 8.0 or higher event anywhere on Earth by June 30—reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismicity, backed by USGS monitoring showing no anomalous precursors across global fault systems. A powerful 7.7-magnitude quake off Japan's northeast coast on April 20 slightly elevated short-term risks, prompting a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for a 1% chance of M8+ in the following week (now expired without incident), yet baseline annual M8+ frequency remains about one event worldwide. Ongoing USGS seismic networks report steady activity without unusual strain buildup in high-risk zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough, justifying the strong "No" lean amid historical rarity over the two-month window. Key updates expected from daily earthquake catalogs.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$56,966End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on an 80.5% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 8.0 or higher event anywhere on Earth by June 30—reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismicity, backed by USGS monitoring showing no anomalous precursors across global fault systems. A powerful 7.7-magnitude quake off Japan's northeast coast on April 20 slightly elevated short-term risks, prompting a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for a 1% chance of M8+ in the following week (now expired without incident), yet baseline annual M8+ frequency remains about one event worldwide. Ongoing USGS seismic networks report steady activity without unusual strain buildup in high-risk zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough, justifying the strong "No" lean amid historical rarity over the two-month window. Key updates expected from daily earthquake catalogs.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$56,966End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 80.5% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 8.0 or higher event anywhere on Earth by June 30—reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismicity, backed by USGS monitoring showing no anomalous precursors across global fault systems. A powerful 7.7-magnitude quake off Japan's northeast coast on April 20 slightly elevated short-term risks, prompting a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for a 1% chance of M8+ in the following week (now expired without incident), yet baseline annual M8+ frequency remains about one event worldwide. Ongoing USGS seismic networks report steady activity without unusual strain buildup in high-risk zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough, justifying the strong "No" lean amid historical rarity over the two-month window. Key updates expected from daily earthquake catalogs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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