Trader consensus heavily favors "No" on a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurring globally before June 30, 2026, reflecting the statistical rarity of megaquakes and the short remaining window. Globally, M8+ events average roughly one per year, with USGS data showing none recorded so far in 2026 despite several M7+ quakes, including a recent M7.8 offshore the Philippines. No official monitoring agency has identified precursors or elevated short-term probabilities that would shift odds meaningfully in the final 13 days. Recent activity aligns with long-term averages rather than signaling an imminent jump to megaquake scale. While short-term forecasting remains impossible and an unexpected M8+ event could still occur in a subduction zone, the compressed timeframe and lack of accelerating indicators keep implied probabilities near certainty for "No."
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
예
$79,783 거래량
$79,783 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$79,783 거래량
$79,783 거래량
2026.06.30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" on a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurring globally before June 30, 2026, reflecting the statistical rarity of megaquakes and the short remaining window. Globally, M8+ events average roughly one per year, with USGS data showing none recorded so far in 2026 despite several M7+ quakes, including a recent M7.8 offshore the Philippines. No official monitoring agency has identified precursors or elevated short-term probabilities that would shift odds meaningfully in the final 13 days. Recent activity aligns with long-term averages rather than signaling an imminent jump to megaquake scale. While short-term forecasting remains impossible and an unexpected M8+ event could still occur in a subduction zone, the compressed timeframe and lack of accelerating indicators keep implied probabilities near certainty for "No."
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
거래량
$79,783종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" on a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurring globally before June 30, 2026, reflecting the statistical rarity of megaquakes and the short remaining window. Globally, M8+ events average roughly one per year, with USGS data showing none recorded so far in 2026 despite several M7+ quakes, including a recent M7.8 offshore the Philippines. No official monitoring agency has identified precursors or elevated short-term probabilities that would shift odds meaningfully in the final 13 days. Recent activity aligns with long-term averages rather than signaling an imminent jump to megaquake scale. While short-term forecasting remains impossible and an unexpected M8+ event could still occur in a subduction zone, the compressed timeframe and lack of accelerating indicators keep implied probabilities near certainty for "No."
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$79,783종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" on a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurring globally before June 30, 2026, reflecting the statistical rarity of megaquakes and the short remaining window. Globally, M8+ events average roughly one per year, with USGS data showing none recorded so far in 2026 despite several M7+ quakes, including a recent M7.8 offshore the Philippines. No official monitoring agency has identified precursors or elevated short-term probabilities that would shift odds meaningfully in the final 13 days. Recent activity aligns with long-term averages rather than signaling an imminent jump to megaquake scale. While short-term forecasting remains impossible and an unexpected M8+ event could still occur in a subduction zone, the compressed timeframe and lack of accelerating indicators keep implied probabilities near certainty for "No."
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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