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러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?

$5,070,081 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg

Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg

Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
볼륨
$5,070,081
종료일
Dec 31, 2025
생성일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:52 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026년 12월 31일" at 87%, followed by "2026년 6월 30일" at 73%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?" has generated $5.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?" is "2026년 12월 31일" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2026년 6월 30일" at 73%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?

$5,070,081 Vol.

Polymarket

2026년 2월 28일

$445,945 Vol.

4%

2026년 3월 31일

$663,815 Vol.

25%

2026년 4월 30일

$8,496 Vol.

39%

2026년 6월 30일

$17,028 Vol.

73%

2026년 12월 31일

$216,302 Vol.

87%

외부 링크를 조심하십시오.

Frequently Asked Questions

"러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026년 12월 31일" at 87%, followed by "2026년 6월 30일" at 73%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?" has generated $5.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?" is "2026년 12월 31일" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2026년 6월 30일" at 73%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "러시아는... 에 의해 Kostyantynivka를 점령 할 것인가?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.