Kentucky's deep Republican lean, reinforced by President Trump's 30-point margin in the 2024 presidential vote and the party's unbroken Senate control since 1992, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The May 19, 2026, primaries produced clear winners: Representative Andy Barr secured the GOP nomination with strong backing, while Charles Booker advanced for Democrats. These outcomes, combined with limited recent polling showing substantial Republican advantages and no major shifts in state voting patterns, sustain the wide gap in implied probabilities. Late developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, national economic swings, or turnout anomalies in the final months before the November 3 general election remain the primary factors that could narrow the margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
96%
Democrat
3%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
$3,865 거래량
96%
Democrat
$4,458 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kentucky's deep Republican lean, reinforced by President Trump's 30-point margin in the 2024 presidential vote and the party's unbroken Senate control since 1992, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The May 19, 2026, primaries produced clear winners: Representative Andy Barr secured the GOP nomination with strong backing, while Charles Booker advanced for Democrats. These outcomes, combined with limited recent polling showing substantial Republican advantages and no major shifts in state voting patterns, sustain the wide gap in implied probabilities. Late developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, national economic swings, or turnout anomalies in the final months before the November 3 general election remain the primary factors that could narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
거래량
$8,323종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kentucky's deep Republican lean, reinforced by President Trump's 30-point margin in the 2024 presidential vote and the party's unbroken Senate control since 1992, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The May 19, 2026, primaries produced clear winners: Representative Andy Barr secured the GOP nomination with strong backing, while Charles Booker advanced for Democrats. These outcomes, combined with limited recent polling showing substantial Republican advantages and no major shifts in state voting patterns, sustain the wide gap in implied probabilities. Late developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, national economic swings, or turnout anomalies in the final months before the November 3 general election remain the primary factors that could narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$8,323종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's deep Republican lean, reinforced by President Trump's 30-point margin in the 2024 presidential vote and the party's unbroken Senate control since 1992, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The May 19, 2026, primaries produced clear winners: Representative Andy Barr secured the GOP nomination with strong backing, while Charles Booker advanced for Democrats. These outcomes, combined with limited recent polling showing substantial Republican advantages and no major shifts in state voting patterns, sustain the wide gap in implied probabilities. Late developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, national economic swings, or turnout anomalies in the final months before the November 3 general election remain the primary factors that could narrow the margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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