Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability that no Iranian agent will face US charges by April 30, driven by the DOJ's lack of new indictments against IRGC operatives or Iranian nationals amid ongoing counter-espionage efforts. Heightened FBI and DHS alerts followed US strikes on Iran-linked targets in early March, yet no arrests or unsealed complaints have emerged in the past 30 days. The March 6 conviction of Pakistani proxy Asif Merchant in an Iran-backed assassination plot—prosecutors highlighted his ties to Iranian intelligence—does not qualify as a fresh charge against an Iranian agent, while the DOJ's March 20 seizure of Iranian regime websites signals pressure without criminal filings. With under four weeks left, traders discount late indictments absent public signals from federal investigations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$26,464 Vol.
$26,464 Vol.
2026/04/30
はい
$26,464 Vol.
$26,464 Vol.
2026/04/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability that no Iranian agent will face US charges by April 30, driven by the DOJ's lack of new indictments against IRGC operatives or Iranian nationals amid ongoing counter-espionage efforts. Heightened FBI and DHS alerts followed US strikes on Iran-linked targets in early March, yet no arrests or unsealed complaints have emerged in the past 30 days. The March 6 conviction of Pakistani proxy Asif Merchant in an Iran-backed assassination plot—prosecutors highlighted his ties to Iranian intelligence—does not qualify as a fresh charge against an Iranian agent, while the DOJ's March 20 seizure of Iranian regime websites signals pressure without criminal filings. With under four weeks left, traders discount late indictments absent public signals from federal investigations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
音量
$26,464終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability that no Iranian agent will face US charges by April 30, driven by the DOJ's lack of new indictments against IRGC operatives or Iranian nationals amid ongoing counter-espionage efforts. Heightened FBI and DHS alerts followed US strikes on Iran-linked targets in early March, yet no arrests or unsealed complaints have emerged in the past 30 days. The March 6 conviction of Pakistani proxy Asif Merchant in an Iran-backed assassination plot—prosecutors highlighted his ties to Iranian intelligence—does not qualify as a fresh charge against an Iranian agent, while the DOJ's March 20 seizure of Iranian regime websites signals pressure without criminal filings. With under four weeks left, traders discount late indictments absent public signals from federal investigations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$26,464終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability that no Iranian agent will face US charges by April 30, driven by the DOJ's lack of new indictments against IRGC operatives or Iranian nationals amid ongoing counter-espionage efforts. Heightened FBI and DHS alerts followed US strikes on Iran-linked targets in early March, yet no arrests or unsealed complaints have emerged in the past 30 days. The March 6 conviction of Pakistani proxy Asif Merchant in an Iran-backed assassination plot—prosecutors highlighted his ties to Iranian intelligence—does not qualify as a fresh charge against an Iranian agent, while the DOJ's March 20 seizure of Iranian regime websites signals pressure without criminal filings. With under four weeks left, traders discount late indictments absent public signals from federal investigations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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