US and Israel remain the primary actors conducting sustained airstrikes against Iran since launching Operation Roaring Lion on February 28, 2026, targeting missile production sites, defense facilities, and nuclear infrastructure to degrade Tehran's retaliatory capabilities. As of March 29, the IDF reported its strike campaign nearly complete, amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone barrages on regional US bases, Israel, and Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain. GCC nations and the UK provide defensive support by intercepting projectiles, with US air operations from RAF Fairford, but no confirmed offensive actions from others. Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations and a postponed US strike on Iranian energy sites set for April 6 heighten risks of escalation before the April 30 deadline, while regional leaders discuss de-escalation amid Houthi strikes on Israel.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$459,691 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
31%
UAE
22%
Bahrain
9%
Kuwait
7%
Qatar
6%
Any E.U. Country
6%
Jordan
6%
France
5%
Turkey
4%
Oman
4%
UK
3%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$459,691 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$72,636 Vol.
31%
UAE
$37,168 Vol.
22%
Bahrain
$780 Vol.
9%
Kuwait
$1,273 Vol.
7%
Qatar
$701 Vol.
6%
Any E.U. Country
$5,081 Vol.
6%
Jordan
$926 Vol.
6%
France
$148,533 Vol.
5%
Turkey
$15,006 Vol.
4%
Oman
$340 Vol.
4%
UK
$103,183 Vol.
3%
Germany
$75,558 Vol.
3%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel remain the primary actors conducting sustained airstrikes against Iran since launching Operation Roaring Lion on February 28, 2026, targeting missile production sites, defense facilities, and nuclear infrastructure to degrade Tehran's retaliatory capabilities. As of March 29, the IDF reported its strike campaign nearly complete, amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone barrages on regional US bases, Israel, and Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain. GCC nations and the UK provide defensive support by intercepting projectiles, with US air operations from RAF Fairford, but no confirmed offensive actions from others. Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations and a postponed US strike on Iranian energy sites set for April 6 heighten risks of escalation before the April 30 deadline, while regional leaders discuss de-escalation amid Houthi strikes on Israel.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
音量
$459,691終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel remain the primary actors conducting sustained airstrikes against Iran since launching Operation Roaring Lion on February 28, 2026, targeting missile production sites, defense facilities, and nuclear infrastructure to degrade Tehran's retaliatory capabilities. As of March 29, the IDF reported its strike campaign nearly complete, amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone barrages on regional US bases, Israel, and Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain. GCC nations and the UK provide defensive support by intercepting projectiles, with US air operations from RAF Fairford, but no confirmed offensive actions from others. Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations and a postponed US strike on Iranian energy sites set for April 6 heighten risks of escalation before the April 30 deadline, while regional leaders discuss de-escalation amid Houthi strikes on Israel.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$459,691終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel remain the primary actors conducting sustained airstrikes against Iran since launching Operation Roaring Lion on February 28, 2026, targeting missile production sites, defense facilities, and nuclear infrastructure to degrade Tehran's retaliatory capabilities. As of March 29, the IDF reported its strike campaign nearly complete, amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone barrages on regional US bases, Israel, and Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain. GCC nations and the UK provide defensive support by intercepting projectiles, with US air operations from RAF Fairford, but no confirmed offensive actions from others. Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations and a postponed US strike on Iranian energy sites set for April 6 heighten risks of escalation before the April 30 deadline, while regional leaders discuss de-escalation amid Houthi strikes on Israel.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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