Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a very low probability for Thailand launching strikes against Cambodia by the resolution date, reflecting stable bilateral ties and effective diplomatic de-escalation mechanisms through ASEAN. Historical border disputes, such as over the Preah Vihear temple area, have been managed peacefully via joint patrols and international arbitration since 2011, with no recent military mobilizations or provocations reported. Recent developments include constructive high-level meetings between Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and Cambodian leader Hun Manet in early 2024, focusing on trade and border cooperation amid economic recovery post-COVID. No credible intelligence suggests escalation risks, though upcoming ASEAN summits in October could reinforce dialogue; traders monitor for any unexpected nationalist rhetoric or territorial incidents that might shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$56,522 Vol.
2026年6月30日
26%
$56,522 Vol.
2026年6月30日
26%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
マーケット開始日: Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a very low probability for Thailand launching strikes against Cambodia by the resolution date, reflecting stable bilateral ties and effective diplomatic de-escalation mechanisms through ASEAN. Historical border disputes, such as over the Preah Vihear temple area, have been managed peacefully via joint patrols and international arbitration since 2011, with no recent military mobilizations or provocations reported. Recent developments include constructive high-level meetings between Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and Cambodian leader Hun Manet in early 2024, focusing on trade and border cooperation amid economic recovery post-COVID. No credible intelligence suggests escalation risks, though upcoming ASEAN summits in October could reinforce dialogue; traders monitor for any unexpected nationalist rhetoric or territorial incidents that might shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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