Recent polls show the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) in a neck-and-neck popular vote race around 28-30%, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) rebounding to 18% under new Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault's January resignation amid low approval ratings. However, 338Canada's May 13 projections give PQ a strong edge with 62 seats (51-71 range out of 125, 63 for majority), reflecting regional vote efficiency in first-past-the-post ridings and momentum from recent by-election victories in Chicoutimi and Arthabaska. Trader consensus prices PQ at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats and form government by October 5, with PLQ at 28% trailing due to weaker seat math despite competitive polling, while CAQ's 10% reflects ongoing recovery challenges. PCQ, QS, PVQ lag far behind in both polls and projections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日PQ 57%
PLQ 28%
CAQ 10%
PCQ 1.1%
$504,800 Vol.
$504,800 Vol.
2026/10/05
PQ
57%
PLQ
28%
CAQ
10%
PCQ
1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 57%
PLQ 28%
CAQ 10%
PCQ 1.1%
$504,800 Vol.
$504,800 Vol.
2026/10/05
PQ
$52,315 Vol.
57%
PLQ
$55,895 Vol.
28%
CAQ
$59,473 Vol.
10%
PCQ
$164,004 Vol.
1%
PVQ
$114,822 Vol.
<1%
QS
$58,291 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls show the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) in a neck-and-neck popular vote race around 28-30%, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) rebounding to 18% under new Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault's January resignation amid low approval ratings. However, 338Canada's May 13 projections give PQ a strong edge with 62 seats (51-71 range out of 125, 63 for majority), reflecting regional vote efficiency in first-past-the-post ridings and momentum from recent by-election victories in Chicoutimi and Arthabaska. Trader consensus prices PQ at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats and form government by October 5, with PLQ at 28% trailing due to weaker seat math despite competitive polling, while CAQ's 10% reflects ongoing recovery challenges. PCQ, QS, PVQ lag far behind in both polls and projections.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
音量
$504,800終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls show the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) in a neck-and-neck popular vote race around 28-30%, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) rebounding to 18% under new Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault's January resignation amid low approval ratings. However, 338Canada's May 13 projections give PQ a strong edge with 62 seats (51-71 range out of 125, 63 for majority), reflecting regional vote efficiency in first-past-the-post ridings and momentum from recent by-election victories in Chicoutimi and Arthabaska. Trader consensus prices PQ at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats and form government by October 5, with PLQ at 28% trailing due to weaker seat math despite competitive polling, while CAQ's 10% reflects ongoing recovery challenges. PCQ, QS, PVQ lag far behind in both polls and projections.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
音量
$504,800終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls show the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) in a neck-and-neck popular vote race around 28-30%, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) rebounding to 18% under new Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault's January resignation amid low approval ratings. However, 338Canada's May 13 projections give PQ a strong edge with 62 seats (51-71 range out of 125, 63 for majority), reflecting regional vote efficiency in first-past-the-post ridings and momentum from recent by-election victories in Chicoutimi and Arthabaska. Trader consensus prices PQ at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats and form government by October 5, with PLQ at 28% trailing due to weaker seat math despite competitive polling, while CAQ's 10% reflects ongoing recovery challenges. PCQ, QS, PVQ lag far behind in both polls and projections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問