Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Parti Québécois (PQ) a 62% implied probability of winning Quebec's next general election, driven by consistent polling leads in recent surveys like Léger (PQ 37%) and Angus Reid (PQ 43%), reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) Premier François Legault over housing shortages, long healthcare wait times, and immigration pressures. PLQ holds 26% odds amid recovery under interim leadership, while CAQ slips to 10.5% following governance fatigue since its 2022 majority win. No snap election called; constitutional timeline targets October 2026, with potential for shifts via leadership contests or policy pivots on language laws and identity issues. Minor parties trail due to fragmented vote shares in Quebec's first-past-the-post system.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日PQ 62%
PLQ 26%
CAQ 11%
PCQ <1%
$275,073 Vol.
$275,073 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
62%
PLQ
26%
CAQ
11%
PCQ
1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 62%
PLQ 26%
CAQ 11%
PCQ <1%
$275,073 Vol.
$275,073 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
$33,359 Vol.
62%
PLQ
$31,373 Vol.
26%
CAQ
$29,623 Vol.
11%
PCQ
$102,430 Vol.
1%
PVQ
$38,180 Vol.
<1%
QS
$40,109 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Parti Québécois (PQ) a 62% implied probability of winning Quebec's next general election, driven by consistent polling leads in recent surveys like Léger (PQ 37%) and Angus Reid (PQ 43%), reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) Premier François Legault over housing shortages, long healthcare wait times, and immigration pressures. PLQ holds 26% odds amid recovery under interim leadership, while CAQ slips to 10.5% following governance fatigue since its 2022 majority win. No snap election called; constitutional timeline targets October 2026, with potential for shifts via leadership contests or policy pivots on language laws and identity issues. Minor parties trail due to fragmented vote shares in Quebec's first-past-the-post system.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
音量
$275,073終了日
Oct 5, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Parti Québécois (PQ) a 62% implied probability of winning Quebec's next general election, driven by consistent polling leads in recent surveys like Léger (PQ 37%) and Angus Reid (PQ 43%), reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) Premier François Legault over housing shortages, long healthcare wait times, and immigration pressures. PLQ holds 26% odds amid recovery under interim leadership, while CAQ slips to 10.5% following governance fatigue since its 2022 majority win. No snap election called; constitutional timeline targets October 2026, with potential for shifts via leadership contests or policy pivots on language laws and identity issues. Minor parties trail due to fragmented vote shares in Quebec's first-past-the-post system.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
音量
$275,073終了日
Oct 5, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Parti Québécois (PQ) a 62% implied probability of winning Quebec's next general election, driven by consistent polling leads in recent surveys like Léger (PQ 37%) and Angus Reid (PQ 43%), reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) Premier François Legault over housing shortages, long healthcare wait times, and immigration pressures. PLQ holds 26% odds amid recovery under interim leadership, while CAQ slips to 10.5% following governance fatigue since its 2022 majority win. No snap election called; constitutional timeline targets October 2026, with potential for shifts via leadership contests or policy pivots on language laws and identity issues. Minor parties trail due to fragmented vote shares in Quebec's first-past-the-post system.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問