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政治·デリバティブ

2026年米国下院選挙：共和党は民主党をひっくり返す... ？

Market icon
政治·デリバティブ

2026年米国下院選挙：共和党は民主党をひっくり返す... ？

Mar 31

Mar 31

Nov 3

Mar 31

Mar 31

Nov 3

$49,449 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$49,449 Vol.

Polymarket

3月31日

$24,990 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
音量
$49,449
終了日
Mar 31, 2026
マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 1:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Republicans' slim 220-215 House majority after the 2024 elections heightens vulnerability in 2026 midterms, where the president's party has lost an average of 26 seats historically, driving trader consensus toward limited Republican net gains over Democrats. Early forecasts identify over 30 competitive districts, mostly GOP-held, amid initial retirement announcements from vulnerable incumbents like Don Bacon and potential others. Democratic fundraising edges and slight generic ballot leads in nascent polls reinforce flip potential, while President Trump's agenda execution, economic trends, and 2025 fiscal clashes could sway sentiment. Special elections in 2025 and primary filings offer early signals in this fluid race.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年米国下院選挙：共和党は民主党をひっくり返す... ？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「3月31日」で0%、次いで「12月31日」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、0¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に0%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年米国下院選挙：共和党は民主党をひっくり返す... ？」は$49.4Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 2, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年米国下院選挙：共和党は民主党をひっくり返す... ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「2026年米国下院選挙：共和党は民主党をひっくり返す... ？」の現在のリーダーは「3月31日」でわずか0%、「12月31日」が0%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年米国下院選挙：共和党は民主党をひっくり返す... ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。