The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has opened Montana’s 1st Congressional District seat, producing a closely contested November general election between Republican nominee Aaron Flint and Democratic nominee Sam Forstag following their June 2 primaries. Trader consensus at near parity reflects the district’s modest Republican tilt, balanced against the advantages of an open seat and Forstag’s appeal in western population centers such as Missoula and Bozeman. Race ratings classify the contest as Likely Republican, yet limited polling and the absence of an established incumbent keep the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns, candidate messaging on local economic issues, and any national political shifts before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
42%
民主党
47%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$1,011 Vol.
42%
民主党
$400 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has opened Montana’s 1st Congressional District seat, producing a closely contested November general election between Republican nominee Aaron Flint and Democratic nominee Sam Forstag following their June 2 primaries. Trader consensus at near parity reflects the district’s modest Republican tilt, balanced against the advantages of an open seat and Forstag’s appeal in western population centers such as Missoula and Bozeman. Race ratings classify the contest as Likely Republican, yet limited polling and the absence of an established incumbent keep the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns, candidate messaging on local economic issues, and any national political shifts before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
音量
$1,410終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has opened Montana’s 1st Congressional District seat, producing a closely contested November general election between Republican nominee Aaron Flint and Democratic nominee Sam Forstag following their June 2 primaries. Trader consensus at near parity reflects the district’s modest Republican tilt, balanced against the advantages of an open seat and Forstag’s appeal in western population centers such as Missoula and Bozeman. Race ratings classify the contest as Likely Republican, yet limited polling and the absence of an established incumbent keep the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns, candidate messaging on local economic issues, and any national political shifts before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,410終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has opened Montana’s 1st Congressional District seat, producing a closely contested November general election between Republican nominee Aaron Flint and Democratic nominee Sam Forstag following their June 2 primaries. Trader consensus at near parity reflects the district’s modest Republican tilt, balanced against the advantages of an open seat and Forstag’s appeal in western population centers such as Missoula and Bozeman. Race ratings classify the contest as Likely Republican, yet limited polling and the absence of an established incumbent keep the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns, candidate messaging on local economic issues, and any national political shifts before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問