The open MT-01 House seat, following incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke's March retirement after four terms, has traders pricing Democrats at 57.5% to win the November general election, a slight edge over Republicans at 47%. This reflects Ryan Busse's 15-point lead in recent Democratic primary polling among a field including Russ Cleveland, Sam Forstag, and Matt Rains, contrasted with a fragmented GOP primary featuring Trump-endorsed Aaron Flint, Christi Jacobsen, and others that risks nominating a less competitive candidate. Late April candidate analyses highlighted Busse's crossover appeal in Missoula and Bozeman amid housing and health care debates, while Inside Elections shifted the rating toward Democrats. June 2 primaries loom as the next market catalyst in this R+5 district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
34%
民主党
46%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$1,011 Vol.
34%
民主党
$392 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open MT-01 House seat, following incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke's March retirement after four terms, has traders pricing Democrats at 57.5% to win the November general election, a slight edge over Republicans at 47%. This reflects Ryan Busse's 15-point lead in recent Democratic primary polling among a field including Russ Cleveland, Sam Forstag, and Matt Rains, contrasted with a fragmented GOP primary featuring Trump-endorsed Aaron Flint, Christi Jacobsen, and others that risks nominating a less competitive candidate. Late April candidate analyses highlighted Busse's crossover appeal in Missoula and Bozeman amid housing and health care debates, while Inside Elections shifted the rating toward Democrats. June 2 primaries loom as the next market catalyst in this R+5 district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
音量
$1,402終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open MT-01 House seat, following incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke's March retirement after four terms, has traders pricing Democrats at 57.5% to win the November general election, a slight edge over Republicans at 47%. This reflects Ryan Busse's 15-point lead in recent Democratic primary polling among a field including Russ Cleveland, Sam Forstag, and Matt Rains, contrasted with a fragmented GOP primary featuring Trump-endorsed Aaron Flint, Christi Jacobsen, and others that risks nominating a less competitive candidate. Late April candidate analyses highlighted Busse's crossover appeal in Missoula and Bozeman amid housing and health care debates, while Inside Elections shifted the rating toward Democrats. June 2 primaries loom as the next market catalyst in this R+5 district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,402終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open MT-01 House seat, following incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke's March retirement after four terms, has traders pricing Democrats at 57.5% to win the November general election, a slight edge over Republicans at 47%. This reflects Ryan Busse's 15-point lead in recent Democratic primary polling among a field including Russ Cleveland, Sam Forstag, and Matt Rains, contrasted with a fragmented GOP primary featuring Trump-endorsed Aaron Flint, Christi Jacobsen, and others that risks nominating a less competitive candidate. Late April candidate analyses highlighted Busse's crossover appeal in Missoula and Bozeman amid housing and health care debates, while Inside Elections shifted the rating toward Democrats. June 2 primaries loom as the next market catalyst in this R+5 district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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