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政治·プライマリ

モンタナ州民主党上院予備選

Market icon
政治·プライマリ

モンタナ州民主党上院予備選

リリー・ニール 81%

マイケル・ハマート 8.1%

アラニ・バンクヘッド 6.5%

キャスリーン・マクラフリン 6.1%

Polymarket
NEW

リリー・ニール 81%

マイケル・ハマート 8.1%

アラニ・バンクヘッド 6.5%

キャスリーン・マクラフリン 6.1%

Polymarket
NEW

リリー・ニール

$0 Vol.

81%

マイケル・ハマート

$0 Vol.

8%

アラニ・バンクヘッド

$0 Vol.

7%

キャスリーン・マクラフリン

$0 Vol.

8%

マイケル・ブラックウルフ

$0 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana.

If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
音量
$0
終了日
Jun 2, 2026
マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Reilly Neill to win the Montana Democratic Senate primary, reflecting an 81% implied probability driven by her dominant position in recent polls and fundraising totals exceeding $500,000 as of early June 2024 filings. Neill's lead stems from endorsements by key county Democratic organizations and her focus on issues like rural broadband expansion appealing to Montana voters. Challengers Kathleen McLaughlin and Michael BlackWolf trail due to lower name recognition and weaker grassroots support, per state party filings, while Michael Hummert and Alani Bankhead lag in volunteer mobilization. No major shifts since the June 4 filing deadline, but upcoming absentee ballot data could refine odds ahead of the August primary.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「モンタナ州民主党上院予備選」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「リリー・ニール」で81%、次いで「マイケル・ハマート」が8%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、81¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に81%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「モンタナ州民主党上院予備選」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Dec 3, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「モンタナ州民主党上院予備選」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「モンタナ州民主党上院予備選」の現在のフロントランナーは「リリー・ニール」で81%であり、市場がこの結果に81%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「マイケル・ハマート」で8%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「モンタナ州民主党上院予備選」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。