Redistricting by the Missouri legislature has shifted Missouri's 5th Congressional District from a Democratic stronghold centered on Kansas City to one that now includes additional rural counties extending toward Columbia, producing a partisan voting index around R+8 or R+9 according to recent analyses. Incumbent Democratic Representative Emanuel Cleaver filed for re-election amid ongoing court challenges to the map, while six Republican candidates have entered the primary scheduled for August 4, 2026. These boundary changes and the expanded candidate field have driven trader consensus toward a Republican victory at 64 percent, reflecting the altered electoral math and historical patterns in similar redrawn districts. Uncertainties around final judicial rulings and primary outcomes remain the primary variables that could adjust probabilities before the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
64%
民主党
37%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$1,729 Vol.
64%
民主党
$1,156 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting by the Missouri legislature has shifted Missouri's 5th Congressional District from a Democratic stronghold centered on Kansas City to one that now includes additional rural counties extending toward Columbia, producing a partisan voting index around R+8 or R+9 according to recent analyses. Incumbent Democratic Representative Emanuel Cleaver filed for re-election amid ongoing court challenges to the map, while six Republican candidates have entered the primary scheduled for August 4, 2026. These boundary changes and the expanded candidate field have driven trader consensus toward a Republican victory at 64 percent, reflecting the altered electoral math and historical patterns in similar redrawn districts. Uncertainties around final judicial rulings and primary outcomes remain the primary variables that could adjust probabilities before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
音量
$2,885終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting by the Missouri legislature has shifted Missouri's 5th Congressional District from a Democratic stronghold centered on Kansas City to one that now includes additional rural counties extending toward Columbia, producing a partisan voting index around R+8 or R+9 according to recent analyses. Incumbent Democratic Representative Emanuel Cleaver filed for re-election amid ongoing court challenges to the map, while six Republican candidates have entered the primary scheduled for August 4, 2026. These boundary changes and the expanded candidate field have driven trader consensus toward a Republican victory at 64 percent, reflecting the altered electoral math and historical patterns in similar redrawn districts. Uncertainties around final judicial rulings and primary outcomes remain the primary variables that could adjust probabilities before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$2,885終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting by the Missouri legislature has shifted Missouri's 5th Congressional District from a Democratic stronghold centered on Kansas City to one that now includes additional rural counties extending toward Columbia, producing a partisan voting index around R+8 or R+9 according to recent analyses. Incumbent Democratic Representative Emanuel Cleaver filed for re-election amid ongoing court challenges to the map, while six Republican candidates have entered the primary scheduled for August 4, 2026. These boundary changes and the expanded candidate field have driven trader consensus toward a Republican victory at 64 percent, reflecting the altered electoral math and historical patterns in similar redrawn districts. Uncertainties around final judicial rulings and primary outcomes remain the primary variables that could adjust probabilities before the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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