Incumbent Republican Rep. Bob Onder's bid for re-election in Missouri's 3rd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 91% implied probability for the Republican Party, reflecting the district's R+13 partisan voter index—the 90th most Republican nationwide—and Onder's 61% general election win in 2024 amid strong fundraising with $374,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. The recent March 31 candidate filing deadline finalized a low-profile Republican primary against challenger John Fraser, while Democrats face a fragmented field including repeat candidate Bethany Mann. All-party ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem the seat Solid/Safe Republican. An August 4 primary upset for Onder, personal scandal, health issues, or an unforeseen national Democratic wave could challenge this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
91%
民主党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$50 Vol.
91%
民主党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Bob Onder's bid for re-election in Missouri's 3rd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 91% implied probability for the Republican Party, reflecting the district's R+13 partisan voter index—the 90th most Republican nationwide—and Onder's 61% general election win in 2024 amid strong fundraising with $374,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. The recent March 31 candidate filing deadline finalized a low-profile Republican primary against challenger John Fraser, while Democrats face a fragmented field including repeat candidate Bethany Mann. All-party ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem the seat Solid/Safe Republican. An August 4 primary upset for Onder, personal scandal, health issues, or an unforeseen national Democratic wave could challenge this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$50終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Bob Onder's bid for re-election in Missouri's 3rd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 91% implied probability for the Republican Party, reflecting the district's R+13 partisan voter index—the 90th most Republican nationwide—and Onder's 61% general election win in 2024 amid strong fundraising with $374,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. The recent March 31 candidate filing deadline finalized a low-profile Republican primary against challenger John Fraser, while Democrats face a fragmented field including repeat candidate Bethany Mann. All-party ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem the seat Solid/Safe Republican. An August 4 primary upset for Onder, personal scandal, health issues, or an unforeseen national Democratic wave could challenge this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$50終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Bob Onder's bid for re-election in Missouri's 3rd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 91% implied probability for the Republican Party, reflecting the district's R+13 partisan voter index—the 90th most Republican nationwide—and Onder's 61% general election win in 2024 amid strong fundraising with $374,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. The recent March 31 candidate filing deadline finalized a low-profile Republican primary against challenger John Fraser, while Democrats face a fragmented field including repeat candidate Bethany Mann. All-party ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem the seat Solid/Safe Republican. An August 4 primary upset for Onder, personal scandal, health issues, or an unforeseen national Democratic wave could challenge this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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