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金正恩は2026年12月31日までに北朝鮮の最高指導者に就任しますか?

Market icon

金正恩は2026年12月31日までに北朝鮮の最高指導者に就任しますか?

12月 31

12月 31

はい

9% 確率
Polymarket

$55,436 Vol.

はい

9% 確率
Polymarket

$55,436 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's recent reappointment as president of state affairs by the Supreme People's Assembly on March 23, 2026, alongside high-profile public appearances such as hosting Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on March 25 and overseeing a high-thrust missile engine test within the past week, underscore his unchallenged grip on power. These official actions, reported via state media KCNA, follow the Ninth Party Congress in February where he opened proceedings and reviewed a massive military parade, reinforcing regime stability amid ongoing nuclear advancements. Persistent health rumors and speculation about daughter Kim Ju Ae's potential succession remain unverified and do not indicate imminent removal, aligning trader consensus at 91.5% "No" probability—barring unforeseen health crises, coups, or external shocks before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$55,436
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's recent reappointment as president of state affairs by the Supreme People's Assembly on March 23, 2026, alongside high-profile public appearances such as hosting Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on March 25 and overseeing a high-thrust missile engine test within the past week, underscore his unchallenged grip on power. These official actions, reported via state media KCNA, follow the Ninth Party Congress in February where he opened proceedings and reviewed a massive military parade, reinforcing regime stability amid ongoing nuclear advancements. Persistent health rumors and speculation about daughter Kim Ju Ae's potential succession remain unverified and do not indicate imminent removal, aligning trader consensus at 91.5% "No" probability—barring unforeseen health crises, coups, or external shocks before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$55,436
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「金正恩は2026年12月31日までに北朝鮮の最高指導者に就任しますか?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年12月31日までに金正恩が北朝鮮の最高指導者を退任するか?」で9%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、9¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に9%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「金正恩は2026年12月31日までに北朝鮮の最高指導者に就任しますか?」は$55.4Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「金正恩は2026年12月31日までに北朝鮮の最高指導者に就任しますか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「金正恩は2026年12月31日までに北朝鮮の最高指導者に就任しますか?」の現在のリーダーは「2026年12月31日までに金正恩が北朝鮮の最高指導者を退任するか?」でわずか9%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「金正恩は2026年12月31日までに北朝鮮の最高指導者に就任しますか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。