Vice President JD Vance has taken a prominent role in US-Iran diplomacy, convening the first Trump administration meeting on the issue and preparing to steer peace efforts amid claims that Iran's conventional military is effectively destroyed by recent strikes, enhancing US leverage. Pakistan-mediated negotiations have advanced, with Iranian sources expressing preference for direct talks with Vance over other envoys like Steve Witkoff, and Turkish officials confirming possible multilateral summit in Islamabad this weekend potentially involving Vance, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Absent any confirmed direct diplomatic meeting to date, trader consensus prices low implied probabilities—12% Yes by March 31 and 25% by April 10—reflecting persistent mistrust, ongoing hostilities, and uncertainty over escalation versus breakthrough.[[1]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by?tid=1723514065215)[[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by)[[3]](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-iran-peace-talks)[[4]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/24/pakistan-army-chief-iran-peace-talks-trump-call)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2037607176894595222)
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$123,944 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
3月31日
11%
4月10日
27%
$123,944 Vol.
3月31日
$88,379 Vol.
11%
4月10日
$35,564 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Vice President JD Vance has taken a prominent role in US-Iran diplomacy, convening the first Trump administration meeting on the issue and preparing to steer peace efforts amid claims that Iran's conventional military is effectively destroyed by recent strikes, enhancing US leverage. Pakistan-mediated negotiations have advanced, with Iranian sources expressing preference for direct talks with Vance over other envoys like Steve Witkoff, and Turkish officials confirming possible multilateral summit in Islamabad this weekend potentially involving Vance, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Absent any confirmed direct diplomatic meeting to date, trader consensus prices low implied probabilities—12% Yes by March 31 and 25% by April 10—reflecting persistent mistrust, ongoing hostilities, and uncertainty over escalation versus breakthrough.[[1]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by?tid=1723514065215)[[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by)[[3]](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-iran-peace-talks)[[4]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/24/pakistan-army-chief-iran-peace-talks-trump-call)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2037607176894595222)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
音量
$123,944終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Vice President JD Vance has taken a prominent role in US-Iran diplomacy, convening the first Trump administration meeting on the issue and preparing to steer peace efforts amid claims that Iran's conventional military is effectively destroyed by recent strikes, enhancing US leverage. Pakistan-mediated negotiations have advanced, with Iranian sources expressing preference for direct talks with Vance over other envoys like Steve Witkoff, and Turkish officials confirming possible multilateral summit in Islamabad this weekend potentially involving Vance, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Absent any confirmed direct diplomatic meeting to date, trader consensus prices low implied probabilities—12% Yes by March 31 and 25% by April 10—reflecting persistent mistrust, ongoing hostilities, and uncertainty over escalation versus breakthrough.[[1]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by?tid=1723514065215)[[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by)[[3]](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-iran-peace-talks)[[4]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/24/pakistan-army-chief-iran-peace-talks-trump-call)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2037607176894595222)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$123,944終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vice President JD Vance has taken a prominent role in US-Iran diplomacy, convening the first Trump administration meeting on the issue and preparing to steer peace efforts amid claims that Iran's conventional military is effectively destroyed by recent strikes, enhancing US leverage. Pakistan-mediated negotiations have advanced, with Iranian sources expressing preference for direct talks with Vance over other envoys like Steve Witkoff, and Turkish officials confirming possible multilateral summit in Islamabad this weekend potentially involving Vance, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Absent any confirmed direct diplomatic meeting to date, trader consensus prices low implied probabilities—12% Yes by March 31 and 25% by April 10—reflecting persistent mistrust, ongoing hostilities, and uncertainty over escalation versus breakthrough.[[1]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by?tid=1723514065215)[[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by)[[3]](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-iran-peace-talks)[[4]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/24/pakistan-army-chief-iran-peace-talks-trump-call)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2037607176894595222)
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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