Amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict, trader consensus reflects diminished Iranian naval capacity after coalition strikes destroyed numerous IRGC vessels, missile boats, and facilities like Bandar Anzali, curtailing threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping despite Tehran's tolls and selective gatekeeping that slashed traffic 95%. Iran's March 29 claim of striking a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman marks a recent escalation, while Iran-backed Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel March 28, raising Red Sea risks. No confirmed successful targeting today; upcoming US precision operations, potential diplomacy, or Houthi reprisals could shift dynamics before April deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$97,361 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 27
<1%
March 28
1%
March 29
2%
March 30
3%
March 31
3%
$97,361 Vol.
March 27
$21,730 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$7,725 Vol.
1%
March 29
$8,226 Vol.
2%
March 30
$8,496 Vol.
3%
March 31
$1,385 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict, trader consensus reflects diminished Iranian naval capacity after coalition strikes destroyed numerous IRGC vessels, missile boats, and facilities like Bandar Anzali, curtailing threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping despite Tehran's tolls and selective gatekeeping that slashed traffic 95%. Iran's March 29 claim of striking a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman marks a recent escalation, while Iran-backed Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel March 28, raising Red Sea risks. No confirmed successful targeting today; upcoming US precision operations, potential diplomacy, or Houthi reprisals could shift dynamics before April deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$97,361終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict, trader consensus reflects diminished Iranian naval capacity after coalition strikes destroyed numerous IRGC vessels, missile boats, and facilities like Bandar Anzali, curtailing threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping despite Tehran's tolls and selective gatekeeping that slashed traffic 95%. Iran's March 29 claim of striking a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman marks a recent escalation, while Iran-backed Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel March 28, raising Red Sea risks. No confirmed successful targeting today; upcoming US precision operations, potential diplomacy, or Houthi reprisals could shift dynamics before April deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$97,361終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict, trader consensus reflects diminished Iranian naval capacity after coalition strikes destroyed numerous IRGC vessels, missile boats, and facilities like Bandar Anzali, curtailing threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping despite Tehran's tolls and selective gatekeeping that slashed traffic 95%. Iran's March 29 claim of striking a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman marks a recent escalation, while Iran-backed Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel March 28, raising Red Sea risks. No confirmed successful targeting today; upcoming US precision operations, potential diplomacy, or Houthi reprisals could shift dynamics before April deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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