Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in early March 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened a period of intensified conflict. Since then, he has issued no verified public appearances, audio, or video, prompting widespread speculation about his location, physical condition, and decision-making role. Iranian officials maintain he remains in the country and in charge, while state media have used AI-generated content to simulate his statements. Reports of prior contingency plans for senior figures to relocate abroad, combined with the regime's security challenges, have sustained trader focus on whether he departs Iran within the market's timeframe. Key upcoming factors include any escalation in hostilities or internal power dynamics that could prompt a change in his status.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,364,124 Vol.
2026/05/31
5月31日
1%
6月30日
4%
$1,364,124 Vol.
5月31日
$243,276 Vol.
1%
6月30日
$149,238 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in early March 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened a period of intensified conflict. Since then, he has issued no verified public appearances, audio, or video, prompting widespread speculation about his location, physical condition, and decision-making role. Iranian officials maintain he remains in the country and in charge, while state media have used AI-generated content to simulate his statements. Reports of prior contingency plans for senior figures to relocate abroad, combined with the regime's security challenges, have sustained trader focus on whether he departs Iran within the market's timeframe. Key upcoming factors include any escalation in hostilities or internal power dynamics that could prompt a change in his status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
音量
$1,364,124終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in early March 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened a period of intensified conflict. Since then, he has issued no verified public appearances, audio, or video, prompting widespread speculation about his location, physical condition, and decision-making role. Iranian officials maintain he remains in the country and in charge, while state media have used AI-generated content to simulate his statements. Reports of prior contingency plans for senior figures to relocate abroad, combined with the regime's security challenges, have sustained trader focus on whether he departs Iran within the market's timeframe. Key upcoming factors include any escalation in hostilities or internal power dynamics that could prompt a change in his status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,364,124終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in early March 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened a period of intensified conflict. Since then, he has issued no verified public appearances, audio, or video, prompting widespread speculation about his location, physical condition, and decision-making role. Iranian officials maintain he remains in the country and in charge, while state media have used AI-generated content to simulate his statements. Reports of prior contingency plans for senior figures to relocate abroad, combined with the regime's security challenges, have sustained trader focus on whether he departs Iran within the market's timeframe. Key upcoming factors include any escalation in hostilities or internal power dynamics that could prompt a change in his status.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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