Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran's supreme leadership in early March 2026 after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes that triggered an emergency succession by the Assembly of Experts. Traders focus on his reported leg injuries from those attacks, subsequent medical treatment in Qom, and complete lack of verified public appearances or audio since appointment, with all communications limited to written statements. Ongoing wartime conditions, including Iranian retaliation and continued operations, raise questions about leadership security and institutional stability. These factors drive assessments of whether health requirements or political calculations could lead to departure from Iran before key resolution dates, against a backdrop of limited independent verification of his current location or condition.