Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% implied probability for Kurds declaring independence from Iran, reflecting Tehran's firm military and political dominance over Kurdish provinces like Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan. No credible separatist announcements, referendums, or territorial gains by groups such as PJAK or KDPI have surfaced in the past 30 days, with recent Iranian security operations containing low-level insurgencies. Absent broader ethnic unrest, international recognition, or regime weakening—unlike the 2017 Iraqi Kurdistan referendum that faced swift backlash—the structural barriers of Iran's unitary state, sanctions-defying resilience, and alliances with Iraq and Syria maintain low odds of such a declaration before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$106,280 Vol.
$106,280 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$106,280 Vol.
$106,280 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% implied probability for Kurds declaring independence from Iran, reflecting Tehran's firm military and political dominance over Kurdish provinces like Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan. No credible separatist announcements, referendums, or territorial gains by groups such as PJAK or KDPI have surfaced in the past 30 days, with recent Iranian security operations containing low-level insurgencies. Absent broader ethnic unrest, international recognition, or regime weakening—unlike the 2017 Iraqi Kurdistan referendum that faced swift backlash—the structural barriers of Iran's unitary state, sanctions-defying resilience, and alliances with Iraq and Syria maintain low odds of such a declaration before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
音量
$106,280終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% implied probability for Kurds declaring independence from Iran, reflecting Tehran's firm military and political dominance over Kurdish provinces like Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan. No credible separatist announcements, referendums, or territorial gains by groups such as PJAK or KDPI have surfaced in the past 30 days, with recent Iranian security operations containing low-level insurgencies. Absent broader ethnic unrest, international recognition, or regime weakening—unlike the 2017 Iraqi Kurdistan referendum that faced swift backlash—the structural barriers of Iran's unitary state, sanctions-defying resilience, and alliances with Iraq and Syria maintain low odds of such a declaration before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$106,280終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% implied probability for Kurds declaring independence from Iran, reflecting Tehran's firm military and political dominance over Kurdish provinces like Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan. No credible separatist announcements, referendums, or territorial gains by groups such as PJAK or KDPI have surfaced in the past 30 days, with recent Iranian security operations containing low-level insurgencies. Absent broader ethnic unrest, international recognition, or regime weakening—unlike the 2017 Iraqi Kurdistan referendum that faced swift backlash—the structural barriers of Iran's unitary state, sanctions-defying resilience, and alliances with Iraq and Syria maintain low odds of such a declaration before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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