The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, now over a month old since February 28 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure, anchors trader consensus on persistent Iranian military action against Israel. Iran has launched daily ballistic missile barrages—over 400 reported—targeting Israeli population centers, with recent cluster munitions hitting areas like Ramat Gan and a fresh Houthi-claimed joint attack alongside Hezbollah on April 1. Israel's multilayered air defenses have intercepted most, but civilian casualties mount. Diplomatic signals include President Trump's April 1 statement that Iran's new regime president requested a ceasefire, conditioned on reopening the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz amid global oil disruptions; escalation or de-escalation hinges on these talks and proxy involvement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$2,139,493 Vol.
2026/03/31
March 18
Yes
March 19
No
March 20
Yes
March 21
Yes
March 22
Yes
March 23
No
March 24
Yes
March 25
Yes
March 26
Yes
March 27
Yes
March 28
Yes
March 29
Yes
March 30
Yes
March 31
Yes
$2,139,493 Vol.
March 18
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 19
$0 Vol.
No
March 20
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 21
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 22
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 23
$1,459,446 Vol.
No
March 24
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 25
$145,695 Vol.
Yes
March 26
$74,701 Vol.
Yes
March 27
$232,742 Vol.
Yes
March 28
$71,770 Vol.
Yes
March 29
$47,704 Vol.
Yes
March 30
$64,792 Vol.
Yes
March 31
$42,644 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, now over a month old since February 28 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure, anchors trader consensus on persistent Iranian military action against Israel. Iran has launched daily ballistic missile barrages—over 400 reported—targeting Israeli population centers, with recent cluster munitions hitting areas like Ramat Gan and a fresh Houthi-claimed joint attack alongside Hezbollah on April 1. Israel's multilayered air defenses have intercepted most, but civilian casualties mount. Diplomatic signals include President Trump's April 1 statement that Iran's new regime president requested a ceasefire, conditioned on reopening the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz amid global oil disruptions; escalation or de-escalation hinges on these talks and proxy involvement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
音量
$2,139,493終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立て
提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, now over a month old since February 28 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure, anchors trader consensus on persistent Iranian military action against Israel. Iran has launched daily ballistic missile barrages—over 400 reported—targeting Israeli population centers, with recent cluster munitions hitting areas like Ramat Gan and a fresh Houthi-claimed joint attack alongside Hezbollah on April 1. Israel's multilayered air defenses have intercepted most, but civilian casualties mount. Diplomatic signals include President Trump's April 1 statement that Iran's new regime president requested a ceasefire, conditioned on reopening the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz amid global oil disruptions; escalation or de-escalation hinges on these talks and proxy involvement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$2,139,493終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立て
提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, now over a month old since February 28 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure, anchors trader consensus on persistent Iranian military action against Israel. Iran has launched daily ballistic missile barrages—over 400 reported—targeting Israeli population centers, with recent cluster munitions hitting areas like Ramat Gan and a fresh Houthi-claimed joint attack alongside Hezbollah on April 1. Israel's multilayered air defenses have intercepted most, but civilian casualties mount. Diplomatic signals include President Trump's April 1 statement that Iran's new regime president requested a ceasefire, conditioned on reopening the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz amid global oil disruptions; escalation or de-escalation hinges on these talks and proxy involvement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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