Following Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian airbase near Isfahan on April 19—retaliation for Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage against Israel—both nations have exercised restraint amid US and international diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have vowed further retaliation but emphasized calibrated responses, while proxy militias like Hezbollah and Houthis maintain low-level attacks without direct Tehran involvement. No verified Iranian military action has occurred since April 13, shifting trader consensus toward lower probabilities as the April 30 deadline nears, though risks persist from Israeli operations in Gaza, Syria strikes, or breakdowns in Oman-mediated talks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$21,088 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Israel
100%
Kuwait
91%
UAE
87%
Saudi Arabia
85%
Bahrain
84%
Jordan
68%
Qatar
61%
Syria
38%
Iraq
37%
Lebanon
36%
Yemen
22%
Oman
17%
Azerbaijan
12%
Turkey
11%
Pakistan
11%
Cyprus
7%
UK
6%
Georgia
4%
Italy
4%
Poland
4%
France
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
3%
Spain
3%
Ukraine
3%
India
2%
Germany
2%
Armenia
2%
$21,088 Vol.
Israel
$6,737 Vol.
100%
Kuwait
$822 Vol.
91%
UAE
$449 Vol.
87%
Saudi Arabia
$26 Vol.
85%
Bahrain
$54 Vol.
84%
Jordan
$0 Vol.
68%
Qatar
$214 Vol.
61%
Syria
$178 Vol.
38%
Iraq
$82 Vol.
37%
Lebanon
$330 Vol.
36%
Yemen
$312 Vol.
22%
Oman
$76 Vol.
17%
Azerbaijan
$413 Vol.
12%
Turkey
$262 Vol.
11%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
11%
Cyprus
$82 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,562 Vol.
6%
Georgia
$440 Vol.
4%
Italy
$100 Vol.
4%
Poland
$1,221 Vol.
4%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$1,433 Vol.
3%
Spain
$1,652 Vol.
3%
Ukraine
$240 Vol.
3%
India
$0 Vol.
2%
Germany
$3,843 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$561 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian airbase near Isfahan on April 19—retaliation for Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage against Israel—both nations have exercised restraint amid US and international diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have vowed further retaliation but emphasized calibrated responses, while proxy militias like Hezbollah and Houthis maintain low-level attacks without direct Tehran involvement. No verified Iranian military action has occurred since April 13, shifting trader consensus toward lower probabilities as the April 30 deadline nears, though risks persist from Israeli operations in Gaza, Syria strikes, or breakdowns in Oman-mediated talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
音量
$21,088終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian airbase near Isfahan on April 19—retaliation for Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage against Israel—both nations have exercised restraint amid US and international diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have vowed further retaliation but emphasized calibrated responses, while proxy militias like Hezbollah and Houthis maintain low-level attacks without direct Tehran involvement. No verified Iranian military action has occurred since April 13, shifting trader consensus toward lower probabilities as the April 30 deadline nears, though risks persist from Israeli operations in Gaza, Syria strikes, or breakdowns in Oman-mediated talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$21,088終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian airbase near Isfahan on April 19—retaliation for Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage against Israel—both nations have exercised restraint amid US and international diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have vowed further retaliation but emphasized calibrated responses, while proxy militias like Hezbollah and Houthis maintain low-level attacks without direct Tehran involvement. No verified Iranian military action has occurred since April 13, shifting trader consensus toward lower probabilities as the April 30 deadline nears, though risks persist from Israeli operations in Gaza, Syria strikes, or breakdowns in Oman-mediated talks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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