The closely matched trader consensus for 0 (37.5%) or 1 (35.5%) large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4, per the Volcanic Explosivity Index measuring ejecta volume and plume height) in 2026 mirrors historical patterns tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS, averaging 0.6–0.8 such events annually over six decades, following a Poisson-like distribution of rare, stochastic occurrences. No recent developments—such as escalated unrest at alert-level volcanoes like Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, Indonesia's Merapi, or Russia's Shiveluch in the past 30 days—suggest heightened activity, keeping higher counts (2+) below 10%. Key differentiators include unpredictable magma dynamics and lack of precursors for clustered events; ongoing seismic, gas, and satellite monitoring by global networks could signal shifts ahead of the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日0 38%
1 36%
2 11.4%
3 3.7%
$638,192 Vol.
$638,192 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
38%
1
36%
2
11%
3
4%
4
2%
5+
2%
0 38%
1 36%
2 11.4%
3 3.7%
$638,192 Vol.
$638,192 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$373,100 Vol.
38%
1
$235,619 Vol.
36%
2
$17,860 Vol.
11%
3
$0 Vol.
4%
4
$11,613 Vol.
2%
5+
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The closely matched trader consensus for 0 (37.5%) or 1 (35.5%) large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4, per the Volcanic Explosivity Index measuring ejecta volume and plume height) in 2026 mirrors historical patterns tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS, averaging 0.6–0.8 such events annually over six decades, following a Poisson-like distribution of rare, stochastic occurrences. No recent developments—such as escalated unrest at alert-level volcanoes like Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, Indonesia's Merapi, or Russia's Shiveluch in the past 30 days—suggest heightened activity, keeping higher counts (2+) below 10%. Key differentiators include unpredictable magma dynamics and lack of precursors for clustered events; ongoing seismic, gas, and satellite monitoring by global networks could signal shifts ahead of the year.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
音量
$638,192終了日
Mar 31, 2027マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The closely matched trader consensus for 0 (37.5%) or 1 (35.5%) large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4, per the Volcanic Explosivity Index measuring ejecta volume and plume height) in 2026 mirrors historical patterns tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS, averaging 0.6–0.8 such events annually over six decades, following a Poisson-like distribution of rare, stochastic occurrences. No recent developments—such as escalated unrest at alert-level volcanoes like Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, Indonesia's Merapi, or Russia's Shiveluch in the past 30 days—suggest heightened activity, keeping higher counts (2+) below 10%. Key differentiators include unpredictable magma dynamics and lack of precursors for clustered events; ongoing seismic, gas, and satellite monitoring by global networks could signal shifts ahead of the year.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
音量
$638,192終了日
Mar 31, 2027マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely matched trader consensus for 0 (37.5%) or 1 (35.5%) large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4, per the Volcanic Explosivity Index measuring ejecta volume and plume height) in 2026 mirrors historical patterns tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS, averaging 0.6–0.8 such events annually over six decades, following a Poisson-like distribution of rare, stochastic occurrences. No recent developments—such as escalated unrest at alert-level volcanoes like Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, Indonesia's Merapi, or Russia's Shiveluch in the past 30 days—suggest heightened activity, keeping higher counts (2+) below 10%. Key differentiators include unpredictable magma dynamics and lack of precursors for clustered events; ongoing seismic, gas, and satellite monitoring by global networks could signal shifts ahead of the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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