Market icon

3月にイランが攻撃する国はいくつありますか?

Market icon

3月にイランが攻撃する国はいくつありますか?

2 48%

1 47%

7 47%

4 44%

Polymarket
NEW

2 48%

1 47%

7 47%

4 44%

Polymarket
NEW

0

$48 Vol.

11%

1

$0 Vol.

47%

2

$0 Vol.

48%

3

$0 Vol.

44%

4

$0 Vol.

44%

5

$0 Vol.

36%

6

$0 Vol.

39%

7

$0 Vol.

47%

8

$0 Vol.

44%

9以上

$0 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$48
終了日
Mar 31, 2026
作成日時
Feb 28, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"3月にイランが攻撃する国はいくつありますか?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2" at 48%, followed by "1" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"3月にイランが攻撃する国はいくつありますか?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "3月にイランが攻撃する国はいくつありますか?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "3月にイランが攻撃する国はいくつありますか?" is "2" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "3月にイランが攻撃する国はいくつありますか?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.