Trader sentiment in the Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026 market reflects the ECB staff's March 2026 projections revising headline HICP inflation to 2.6%—up 0.7 percentage points from December—driven by surging oil and gas prices from the Middle East conflict, with energy inflation projected to peak at levels pushing quarterly HICP to 3.1% in Q2 2026. February's annual HICP rose unexpectedly to 1.9% from January's 1.7%, signaling stickiness amid wage moderation but potential second-round effects. Implied probabilities favor 3.1%+ at 36%, capturing upside risks from prolonged disruptions versus the baseline, while 1.6–1.8% at 26% prices milder resolutions; closely contested lower bins highlight uncertainty. Watch March 31 flash HICP for near-term catalysts ahead of ECB's April review.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3.1%以上 55.9%
1.6~1.8% 25.6%
2.8~3.0% 23.5%
1.3~1.5% 21.7%
1.0%未満
15%
1.0〜1.2%
20%
1.3~1.5%
22%
1.6~1.8%
26%
1.9~2.1%
17%
2.2~2.4%
23%
2.5~2.7%
17%
2.8~3.0%
17%
3.1%以上
36%
3.1%以上 55.9%
1.6~1.8% 25.6%
2.8~3.0% 23.5%
1.3~1.5% 21.7%
1.0%未満
15%
1.0〜1.2%
20%
1.3~1.5%
22%
1.6~1.8%
26%
1.9~2.1%
17%
2.2~2.4%
23%
2.5~2.7%
17%
2.8~3.0%
17%
3.1%以上
36%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
マーケット開始日: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment in the Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026 market reflects the ECB staff's March 2026 projections revising headline HICP inflation to 2.6%—up 0.7 percentage points from December—driven by surging oil and gas prices from the Middle East conflict, with energy inflation projected to peak at levels pushing quarterly HICP to 3.1% in Q2 2026. February's annual HICP rose unexpectedly to 1.9% from January's 1.7%, signaling stickiness amid wage moderation but potential second-round effects. Implied probabilities favor 3.1%+ at 36%, capturing upside risks from prolonged disruptions versus the baseline, while 1.6–1.8% at 26% prices milder resolutions; closely contested lower bins highlight uncertainty. Watch March 31 flash HICP for near-term catalysts ahead of ECB's April review.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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