Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray's commanding fundraising lead—over $1.2 million cash on hand—and proven overperformance against Kamala Harris in Merced County anchor the 79.5% trader consensus for a Democratic hold in California's top-two primary on June 2 and November general election. Gray's March 12 reelection launch emphasized bipartisan Central Valley priorities amid a redrawn district spanning Stockton to Mendota, bolstering his edge in this R+1 Cook PVI battleground. Without 2024 rival John Duarte, Republicans Kevin Lincoln II and Vin Kruttiventi trail financially, aligning with recent Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating shifted January 15. Midterm incumbency advantages and lack of GOP momentum sustain the imbalance, though national headwinds could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
76%
共和党
22%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$329 Vol.
76%
共和党
$353 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray's commanding fundraising lead—over $1.2 million cash on hand—and proven overperformance against Kamala Harris in Merced County anchor the 79.5% trader consensus for a Democratic hold in California's top-two primary on June 2 and November general election. Gray's March 12 reelection launch emphasized bipartisan Central Valley priorities amid a redrawn district spanning Stockton to Mendota, bolstering his edge in this R+1 Cook PVI battleground. Without 2024 rival John Duarte, Republicans Kevin Lincoln II and Vin Kruttiventi trail financially, aligning with recent Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating shifted January 15. Midterm incumbency advantages and lack of GOP momentum sustain the imbalance, though national headwinds could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
音量
$682終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray's commanding fundraising lead—over $1.2 million cash on hand—and proven overperformance against Kamala Harris in Merced County anchor the 79.5% trader consensus for a Democratic hold in California's top-two primary on June 2 and November general election. Gray's March 12 reelection launch emphasized bipartisan Central Valley priorities amid a redrawn district spanning Stockton to Mendota, bolstering his edge in this R+1 Cook PVI battleground. Without 2024 rival John Duarte, Republicans Kevin Lincoln II and Vin Kruttiventi trail financially, aligning with recent Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating shifted January 15. Midterm incumbency advantages and lack of GOP momentum sustain the imbalance, though national headwinds could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$682終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray's commanding fundraising lead—over $1.2 million cash on hand—and proven overperformance against Kamala Harris in Merced County anchor the 79.5% trader consensus for a Democratic hold in California's top-two primary on June 2 and November general election. Gray's March 12 reelection launch emphasized bipartisan Central Valley priorities amid a redrawn district spanning Stockton to Mendota, bolstering his edge in this R+1 Cook PVI battleground. Without 2024 rival John Duarte, Republicans Kevin Lincoln II and Vin Kruttiventi trail financially, aligning with recent Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating shifted January 15. Midterm incumbency advantages and lack of GOP momentum sustain the imbalance, though national headwinds could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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