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エコノミー·マクロインジケータ

Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?

Market icon
エコノミー·マクロインジケータ

Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?

May 29

May 29

1.5%–1.8% 37%

<0.7% 19%

1.9%–2.2% 14%

2.3%–2.6% 14%

Polymarket

$14,638 Vol.

1.5%–1.8% 37%

<0.7% 19%

1.9%–2.2% 14%

2.3%–2.6% 14%

Polymarket

$14,638 Vol.

<0.7%

$13,163 Vol.

19%

0.7%–1.0%

$10 Vol.

10%

1.1%–1.4%

$5 Vol.

11%

1.5%–1.8%

$227 Vol.

37%

1.9%–2.2%

$63 Vol.

14%

2.3%–2.6%

$10 Vol.

14%

≥2.7%

$1,161 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at a modest 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year with 36.5% implied probability, reflecting the economy's cooldown revealed in IBGE's March 3 release of 2.3% full-year 2025 expansion—down sharply from 3.4% in 2024—amid persistently high Selic rates at 15% until the central bank's first cut to 14.75% on March 19. Elevated borrowing costs curbed services and domestic demand, while sticky inflation forecasts in the latest Focus survey ticked up to 4.1% for 2026, tempering optimism despite BBVA Research's 1.7% annual projection. Lower bins like <0.7% (19%) capture recession risks from fiscal pressures, with Q1 data due May 29 amid monitoring of March industrial output and retail sales.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at a modest 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year with 36.5% implied probability, reflecting the economy's cooldown revealed in IBGE's March 3 release of 2.3% full-year 2025 expansion—down sharply from 3.4% in 2024—amid persistently high Selic rates at 15% until the central bank's first cut to 14.75% on March 19. Elevated borrowing costs curbed services and domestic demand, while sticky inflation forecasts in the latest Focus survey ticked up to 4.1% for 2026, tempering optimism despite BBVA Research's 1.7% annual projection. Lower bins like <0.7% (19%) capture recession risks from fiscal pressures, with Q1 data due May 29 amid monitoring of March industrial output and retail sales.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at a modest 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year with 36.5% implied probability, reflecting the economy's cooldown revealed in IBGE's March 3 release of 2.3% full-year 2025 expansion—down sharply from 3.4% in 2024—amid persistently high Selic rates at 15% until the central bank's first cut to 14.75% on March 19. Elevated borrowing costs curbed services and domestic demand, while sticky inflation forecasts in the latest Focus survey ticked up to 4.1% for 2026, tempering optimism despite BBVA Research's 1.7% annual projection. Lower bins like <0.7% (19%) capture recession risks from fiscal pressures, with Q1 data due May 29 amid monitoring of March industrial output and retail sales.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at a modest 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year with 36.5% implied probability, reflecting the economy's cooldown revealed in IBGE's March 3 release of 2.3% full-year 2025 expansion—down sharply from 3.4% in 2024—amid persistently high Selic rates at 15% until the central bank's first cut to 14.75% on March 19. Elevated borrowing costs curbed services and domestic demand, while sticky inflation forecasts in the latest Focus survey ticked up to 4.1% for 2026, tempering optimism despite BBVA Research's 1.7% annual projection. Lower bins like <0.7% (19%) capture recession risks from fiscal pressures, with Q1 data due May 29 amid monitoring of March industrial output and retail sales.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「1.5%–1.8%」で37%、次いで「<0.7%」が19%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、37¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に37%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?」は$14.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 23, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?」の現在のフロントランナーは「1.5%–1.8%」で37%であり、市場がこの結果に37%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「<0.7%」で19%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。