Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil Selic rate decrease at the April 28-29 Copom meeting, building on the March initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first since 2024—amid projections for inflation convergence to the 3% target by late 2027. This positioning reflects Copom's forward guidance emphasizing a gradual path despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on transient energy shocks from Middle East tensions, with Focus survey expectations holding at 4.1% for 2026. Upside risks to inflation persistence or further Focus revisions above the 4.5% tolerance ceiling could realistically prompt a pause, challenging the strong decrease bias.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日引き下げ 94.0%
変更なし 5.1%
引き上げ <1%
$298,890 Vol.
$298,890 Vol.
引き上げ
1%
変更なし
5%
引き下げ
94%
引き下げ 94.0%
変更なし 5.1%
引き上げ <1%
$298,890 Vol.
$298,890 Vol.
引き上げ
1%
変更なし
5%
引き下げ
94%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil Selic rate decrease at the April 28-29 Copom meeting, building on the March initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first since 2024—amid projections for inflation convergence to the 3% target by late 2027. This positioning reflects Copom's forward guidance emphasizing a gradual path despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on transient energy shocks from Middle East tensions, with Focus survey expectations holding at 4.1% for 2026. Upside risks to inflation persistence or further Focus revisions above the 4.5% tolerance ceiling could realistically prompt a pause, challenging the strong decrease bias.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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