Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs commands strong trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability to win re-election in 2026, driven by her solid approval ratings above 50% and effective handling of state issues like border security and water management amid Arizona's ongoing challenges. Recent polling averages show her leading potential Republican challengers by double digits, with no dominant GOP nominee yet emerging following the party's narrow 2022 defeat. Republican odds at 26% reflect internal divisions and lack of a clear frontrunner, though upcoming primary filings and national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap. Key battleground factors include swing voter turnout in Maricopa County and economic trends influencing incumbency advantage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$36,441 Vol.
$36,441 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
76%
共和党
25%
$36,441 Vol.
$36,441 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$19,735 Vol.
76%
共和党
$16,706 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
音量
$36,441終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$36,441終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs commands strong trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability to win re-election in 2026, driven by her solid approval ratings above 50% and effective handling of state issues like border security and water management amid Arizona's ongoing challenges. Recent polling averages show her leading potential Republican challengers by double digits, with no dominant GOP nominee yet emerging following the party's narrow 2022 defeat. Republican odds at 26% reflect internal divisions and lack of a clear frontrunner, though upcoming primary filings and national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap. Key battleground factors include swing voter turnout in Maricopa County and economic trends influencing incumbency advantage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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