Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, reflecting a marked lull in diplomatic actions since Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over Tehran's criticism of Buenos Aires' IRGC terrorist designation. This followed a March wave of expulsions—Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE targeting Iranian envoys amid missile strikes and Hezbollah tensions—but no new verified measures have emerged in the past two weeks despite ongoing Middle East frictions. Absent fresh provocations like airstrikes or sanctions escalations, the wisdom of crowds sees slim odds of further persona non grata declarations before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/04/30
はい
新規
新規
2026/04/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, reflecting a marked lull in diplomatic actions since Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over Tehran's criticism of Buenos Aires' IRGC terrorist designation. This followed a March wave of expulsions—Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE targeting Iranian envoys amid missile strikes and Hezbollah tensions—but no new verified measures have emerged in the past two weeks despite ongoing Middle East frictions. Absent fresh provocations like airstrikes or sanctions escalations, the wisdom of crowds sees slim odds of further persona non grata declarations before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
音量
$9,810終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, reflecting a marked lull in diplomatic actions since Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over Tehran's criticism of Buenos Aires' IRGC terrorist designation. This followed a March wave of expulsions—Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE targeting Iranian envoys amid missile strikes and Hezbollah tensions—but no new verified measures have emerged in the past two weeks despite ongoing Middle East frictions. Absent fresh provocations like airstrikes or sanctions escalations, the wisdom of crowds sees slim odds of further persona non grata declarations before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$9,810終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, reflecting a marked lull in diplomatic actions since Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over Tehran's criticism of Buenos Aires' IRGC terrorist designation. This followed a March wave of expulsions—Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE targeting Iranian envoys amid missile strikes and Hezbollah tensions—but no new verified measures have emerged in the past two weeks despite ongoing Middle East frictions. Absent fresh provocations like airstrikes or sanctions escalations, the wisdom of crowds sees slim odds of further persona non grata declarations before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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