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Politique·Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani à la mairie de New York avant 2027 ?

Market icon
Politique·Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani à la mairie de New York avant 2027 ?

Oui

8% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Oui

8% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zohran Mamdani ceases to be the mayor of New York City for any period of time between taking office and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Zohran Mamdani does not take office as the 111th Mayor of New York City, succeeding Eric Adams, as currently scheduled for January 1, 2026, by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes.” An announcement of Zohran Mamdani's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Zohran Mamdani, his representatives, or the Office of the Mayor of New York City; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Zohran Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Queens, shows no serious path to becoming NYC mayor before 2027, driving the 92.5% "No" trader consensus. He has not announced a candidacy for the 2025 mayoral election, where primaries are set for June 24, amid a crowded Democratic field including City Comptroller Brad Lander and potential entrants like former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams' federal corruption indictment on September 26—followed by his not-guilty plea—has disrupted the race but failed to boost Mamdani, a democratic socialist focused on his own Assembly re-election on November 5. Even if victorious, early exit within a year via resignation, impeachment, or recall remains improbable given historical precedents for new mayors. Traders price in these structural barriers and lack of momentum.

Zohran Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Queens, shows no serious path to becoming NYC mayor before 2027, driving the 92.5% "No" trader consensus. He has not announced a candidacy for the 2025 mayoral election, where primaries are set for June 24, amid a crowded Democratic field including City Comptroller Brad Lander and potential entrants like former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams' federal corruption indictment on September 26—followed by his not-guilty plea—has disrupted the race but failed to boost Mamdani, a democratic socialist focused on his own Assembly re-election on November 5. Even if victorious, early exit within a year via resignation, impeachment, or recall remains improbable given historical precedents for new mayors. Traders price in these structural barriers and lack of momentum.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zohran Mamdani ceases to be the mayor of New York City for any period of time between taking office and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Zohran Mamdani does not take office as the 111th Mayor of New York City, succeeding Eric Adams, as currently scheduled for January 1, 2026, by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes.” An announcement of Zohran Mamdani's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Zohran Mamdani, his representatives, or the Office of the Mayor of New York City; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Zohran Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Queens, shows no serious path to becoming NYC mayor before 2027, driving the 92.5% "No" trader consensus. He has not announced a candidacy for the 2025 mayoral election, where primaries are set for June 24, amid a crowded Democratic field including City Comptroller Brad Lander and potential entrants like former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams' federal corruption indictment on September 26—followed by his not-guilty plea—has disrupted the race but failed to boost Mamdani, a democratic socialist focused on his own Assembly re-election on November 5. Even if victorious, early exit within a year via resignation, impeachment, or recall remains improbable given historical precedents for new mayors. Traders price in these structural barriers and lack of momentum.

Zohran Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Queens, shows no serious path to becoming NYC mayor before 2027, driving the 92.5% "No" trader consensus. He has not announced a candidacy for the 2025 mayoral election, where primaries are set for June 24, amid a crowded Democratic field including City Comptroller Brad Lander and potential entrants like former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams' federal corruption indictment on September 26—followed by his not-guilty plea—has disrupted the race but failed to boost Mamdani, a democratic socialist focused on his own Assembly re-election on November 5. Even if victorious, early exit within a year via resignation, impeachment, or recall remains improbable given historical precedents for new mayors. Traders price in these structural barriers and lack of momentum.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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« Zohran Mamdani à la mairie de New York avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Zohran Mamdani évincé du poste de maire de New York avant 2027 ? » à 8%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 8¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 8% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Zohran Mamdani à la mairie de New York avant 2027 ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Nov 5, 2025. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Zohran Mamdani à la mairie de New York avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Zohran Mamdani à la mairie de New York avant 2027 ? » est « Zohran Mamdani évincé du poste de maire de New York avant 2027 ? » à seulement 8%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Zohran Mamdani à la mairie de New York avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.