The January 2026 U.S. operation in Venezuela, which used targeted strikes and a limited special forces raid to capture Nicolás Maduro without occupation or sustained ground forces, has anchored trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely for the balance of the year. Official statements described the action as a narrow counter-narcotics effort, aligning with precedents that distinguish such raids from broader interventions. Subsequent naval interdictions of drug vessels, joint operations with Ecuadorian forces against cartels, and diplomatic pressure on regional actors have produced no announced plans or deployments indicating large-scale invasions elsewhere, such as in Mexico. This pattern of calibrated military and economic measures under the current administration sustains the 77.5% implied probability on "No," though scheduled summits and ongoing cartel enforcement could still introduce new variables before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$225,922 Vol.
$225,922 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$225,922 Vol.
$225,922 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The January 2026 U.S. operation in Venezuela, which used targeted strikes and a limited special forces raid to capture Nicolás Maduro without occupation or sustained ground forces, has anchored trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely for the balance of the year. Official statements described the action as a narrow counter-narcotics effort, aligning with precedents that distinguish such raids from broader interventions. Subsequent naval interdictions of drug vessels, joint operations with Ecuadorian forces against cartels, and diplomatic pressure on regional actors have produced no announced plans or deployments indicating large-scale invasions elsewhere, such as in Mexico. This pattern of calibrated military and economic measures under the current administration sustains the 77.5% implied probability on "No," though scheduled summits and ongoing cartel enforcement could still introduce new variables before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$225,922Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The January 2026 U.S. operation in Venezuela, which used targeted strikes and a limited special forces raid to capture Nicolás Maduro without occupation or sustained ground forces, has anchored trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely for the balance of the year. Official statements described the action as a narrow counter-narcotics effort, aligning with precedents that distinguish such raids from broader interventions. Subsequent naval interdictions of drug vessels, joint operations with Ecuadorian forces against cartels, and diplomatic pressure on regional actors have produced no announced plans or deployments indicating large-scale invasions elsewhere, such as in Mexico. This pattern of calibrated military and economic measures under the current administration sustains the 77.5% implied probability on "No," though scheduled summits and ongoing cartel enforcement could still introduce new variables before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$225,922Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The January 2026 U.S. operation in Venezuela, which used targeted strikes and a limited special forces raid to capture Nicolás Maduro without occupation or sustained ground forces, has anchored trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely for the balance of the year. Official statements described the action as a narrow counter-narcotics effort, aligning with precedents that distinguish such raids from broader interventions. Subsequent naval interdictions of drug vessels, joint operations with Ecuadorian forces against cartels, and diplomatic pressure on regional actors have produced no announced plans or deployments indicating large-scale invasions elsewhere, such as in Mexico. This pattern of calibrated military and economic measures under the current administration sustains the 77.5% implied probability on "No," though scheduled summits and ongoing cartel enforcement could still introduce new variables before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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