Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98% for "No," stemming from the complete absence of any bilateral deportation agreement between the US and Argentina, with no announcements from DHS, ICE, or incoming Trump administration officials on such flights. Recent immigration developments emphasize executive orders to expand border security, end catch-and-release policies, and prioritize removals to Mexico and origin countries in Central America, bypassing third-country options like Argentina. Logistical barriers—arranging charters, Argentina's limited reception capacity, and judicial challenges to mass deportations—reinforce this stance amid the tight post-inauguration timeline to March 31. A sudden diplomatic pact or policy pivot could theoretically alter odds, but no signals indicate movement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98% for "No," stemming from the complete absence of any bilateral deportation agreement between the US and Argentina, with no announcements from DHS, ICE, or incoming Trump administration officials on such flights. Recent immigration developments emphasize executive orders to expand border security, end catch-and-release policies, and prioritize removals to Mexico and origin countries in Central America, bypassing third-country options like Argentina. Logistical barriers—arranging charters, Argentina's limited reception capacity, and judicial challenges to mass deportations—reinforce this stance amid the tight post-inauguration timeline to March 31. A sudden diplomatic pact or policy pivot could theoretically alter odds, but no signals indicate movement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98% for "No," stemming from the complete absence of any bilateral deportation agreement between the US and Argentina, with no announcements from DHS, ICE, or incoming Trump administration officials on such flights. Recent immigration developments emphasize executive orders to expand border security, end catch-and-release policies, and prioritize removals to Mexico and origin countries in Central America, bypassing third-country options like Argentina. Logistical barriers—arranging charters, Argentina's limited reception capacity, and judicial challenges to mass deportations—reinforce this stance amid the tight post-inauguration timeline to March 31. A sudden diplomatic pact or policy pivot could theoretically alter odds, but no signals indicate movement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98% for "No," stemming from the complete absence of any bilateral deportation agreement between the US and Argentina, with no announcements from DHS, ICE, or incoming Trump administration officials on such flights. Recent immigration developments emphasize executive orders to expand border security, end catch-and-release policies, and prioritize removals to Mexico and origin countries in Central America, bypassing third-country options like Argentina. Logistical barriers—arranging charters, Argentina's limited reception capacity, and judicial challenges to mass deportations—reinforce this stance amid the tight post-inauguration timeline to March 31. A sudden diplomatic pact or policy pivot could theoretically alter odds, but no signals indicate movement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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