Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israël frappera-t-il le Liban le... ?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Feb 28

$9,121,450 Vol.

Nov 5, 2025
Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$9,121,450
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Créé le
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israël frappera-t-il le Liban le... ?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Feb 28

$9,121,450 Vol.

Polymarket

29 octobre

$24,426 Vol.

Non

30 octobre

$66,799 Vol.

Oui

31 octobre

$57,545 Vol.

Oui

1er novembre

$228,007 Vol.

Oui

2 novembre

$152,234 Vol.

Oui

3 novembre

$83,226 Vol.

Oui

4 novembre

$728,964 Vol.

Non

5 novembre

$189,996 Vol.

Oui

November 6

$163,961 Vol.

Oui

7 novembre

$69,807 Vol.

Non

8 novembre

$133,642 Vol.

Oui

9 novembre

$254,973 Vol.

Oui

10 novembre

$168,198 Vol.

Oui

11 novembre

$105,391 Vol.

Non

12 novembre

$41,620 Vol.

Non

13 novembre

$128,822 Vol.

Oui

14 novembre

$40,611 Vol.

Non

15 novembre

$25,567 Vol.

Non

16 novembre

$98,133 Vol.

Oui

17 novembre

$80,522 Vol.

Non

18 novembre

$85,260 Vol.

Oui

19 novembre

$96,908 Vol.

Oui

20 novembre

$49,142 Vol.

Non

21 novembre

$72,916 Vol.

Oui

22 novembre

$88,793 Vol.

Oui

November 23

$53,984 Vol.

Oui

24 novembre

$41,324 Vol.

Non

25 novembre

$16,646 Vol.

Non

26 novembre

$36,978 Vol.

Non

Titre d'élément du groupe : 27 novembre

$18,887 Vol.

Oui

28 novembre

$45,758 Vol.

Non

29 novembre

$30,122 Vol.

Non

Le 30 novembre

$20,350 Vol.

Non

1er décembre

$16,399 Vol.

Non

2 décembre

$28,740 Vol.

Non

3 décembre

$22,529 Vol.

Non

4 décembre

$129,893 Vol.

Oui

5 décembre

$61,486 Vol.

Non

6 décembre

$32,733 Vol.

Non

December 7

$43,531 Vol.

Non

8 décembre

$4,021,935 Vol.

Oui

9 décembre

$118,320 Vol.

Non

10 décembre

$30,550 Vol.

Non

11 décembre

$16,645 Vol.

Non

12 décembre

$23,012 Vol.

Oui

13 décembre

$84,378 Vol.

Non

14 décembre

$101,053 Vol.

Oui

15 décembre

$21,960 Vol.

Non

16 décembre

$55,553 Vol.

Oui

17 décembre

$59,674 Vol.

Non

18 décembre

$34,253 Vol.

Oui

19 décembre

$28,701 Vol.

Non

20 décembre

$126,380 Vol.

Non

21 décembre

$122,833 Vol.

Oui

22 décembre

$122,462 Vol.

Oui

23 décembre

$53,755 Vol.

Non

24 décembre

$73,248 Vol.

Oui

25 décembre

$29,586 Vol.

Oui

26 décembre

$17,189 Vol.

Oui

27 décembre

$39,594 Vol.

Non

28 décembre

$19,989 Vol.

Non

29 décembre

$28,354 Vol.

Non

30 décembre

$28,941 Vol.

Non

31 décembre

$28,263 Vol.

Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.