Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—29.5% each for SpaceX IPO valuations of $1.50-1.75 trillion and $1.75-2.00 trillion—reflect uncertainty around the company's aggressive $1.75 trillion target amid late-March reports of a June 2026 debut under "Project Apex," backed by a 21-bank syndicate led by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Starlink's projected revenue surge to over $16 billion in 2025, fueled by subscriber growth and 83% global launch market share, underpins the premium, though a 109x price-to-sales multiple raises skepticism versus Nvidia's historical 40x peak. Key differentiators include Starship reusability milestones and regulatory tailwinds, with trader consensus pricing a Musk premium while eyeing April investor briefings and filing as resolution catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour1,50-1,75 T 30%
1,75-2,00 T 30%
2,00-2,25 T 13%
1,25-1,50T 10.1%
$84,562 Vol.
$84,562 Vol.
<1,25T
5%
1,25-1,50T
10%
1,50-1,75 T
30%
1,75-2,00 T
30%
2,00-2,25 T
13%
2,25-2,50 T
9%
2,50 T+
7%
1,50-1,75 T 30%
1,75-2,00 T 30%
2,00-2,25 T 13%
1,25-1,50T 10.1%
$84,562 Vol.
$84,562 Vol.
<1,25T
$52,803 Vol.
5%
1,25-1,50T
$8,222 Vol.
10%
1,50-1,75 T
$4,251 Vol.
30%
1,75-2,00 T
$3,516 Vol.
30%
2,00-2,25 T
$3,108 Vol.
13%
2,25-2,50 T
$6,249 Vol.
9%
2,50 T+
$6,414 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—29.5% each for SpaceX IPO valuations of $1.50-1.75 trillion and $1.75-2.00 trillion—reflect uncertainty around the company's aggressive $1.75 trillion target amid late-March reports of a June 2026 debut under "Project Apex," backed by a 21-bank syndicate led by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Starlink's projected revenue surge to over $16 billion in 2025, fueled by subscriber growth and 83% global launch market share, underpins the premium, though a 109x price-to-sales multiple raises skepticism versus Nvidia's historical 40x peak. Key differentiators include Starship reusability milestones and regulatory tailwinds, with trader consensus pricing a Musk premium while eyeing April investor briefings and filing as resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$84,562Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—29.5% each for SpaceX IPO valuations of $1.50-1.75 trillion and $1.75-2.00 trillion—reflect uncertainty around the company's aggressive $1.75 trillion target amid late-March reports of a June 2026 debut under "Project Apex," backed by a 21-bank syndicate led by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Starlink's projected revenue surge to over $16 billion in 2025, fueled by subscriber growth and 83% global launch market share, underpins the premium, though a 109x price-to-sales multiple raises skepticism versus Nvidia's historical 40x peak. Key differentiators include Starship reusability milestones and regulatory tailwinds, with trader consensus pricing a Musk premium while eyeing April investor briefings and filing as resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$84,562Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—29.5% each for SpaceX IPO valuations of $1.50-1.75 trillion and $1.75-2.00 trillion—reflect uncertainty around the company's aggressive $1.75 trillion target amid late-March reports of a June 2026 debut under "Project Apex," backed by a 21-bank syndicate led by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Starlink's projected revenue surge to over $16 billion in 2025, fueled by subscriber growth and 83% global launch market share, underpins the premium, though a 109x price-to-sales multiple raises skepticism versus Nvidia's historical 40x peak. Key differentiators include Starship reusability milestones and regulatory tailwinds, with trader consensus pricing a Musk premium while eyeing April investor briefings and filing as resolution catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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