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Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles

Market icon

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles

Plaid Cymru 82%

Reform UK 16%

Parti travailliste gallois 1.6%

Conservateurs gallois <1%

Polymarket

$19,145 Vol.

Plaid Cymru 82%

Reform UK 16%

Parti travailliste gallois 1.6%

Conservateurs gallois <1%

Polymarket

$19,145 Vol.

Parti travailliste gallois

$3,346 Vol.

2%

Plaid Cymru

$5,877 Vol.

82%

Conservateurs gallois

$2,492 Vol.

<1%

Reform UK

$3,859 Vol.

16%

Libéraux démocrates gallois

$1,865 Vol.

<1%

Parti vert gallois

$1,706 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Plaid Cymru to secure the most seats in the May 7, 2026 Senedd election, driven by the first YouGov MRP poll (fieldwork March 9–18) projecting 43 seats for the party under the new 96-seat party-list proportional representation system across 16 constituencies—six short of a majority amid a hung parliament scenario. Reform UK trails at 30 projected seats on 27% vote share, reflecting its surge but inability to overtake Plaid's 33%, while Welsh Labour plummets to 12 seats on 13% amid historic declines and First Minister Eluned Morgan projected to lose her seat. Earlier polls showed tighter Plaid-Reform races, but this MRP solidified Plaid's edge as cost-of-living concerns and voter shifts dominate, with 60% unaware of the system's changes. Late developments or turnout could still narrow the gap.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Plaid Cymru to secure the most seats in the May 7, 2026 Senedd election, driven by the first YouGov MRP poll (fieldwork March 9–18) projecting 43 seats for the party under the new 96-seat party-list proportional representation system across 16 constituencies—six short of a majority amid a hung parliament scenario. Reform UK trails at 30 projected seats on 27% vote share, reflecting its surge but inability to overtake Plaid's 33%, while Welsh Labour plummets to 12 seats on 13% amid historic declines and First Minister Eluned Morgan projected to lose her seat. Earlier polls showed tighter Plaid-Reform races, but this MRP solidified Plaid's edge as cost-of-living concerns and voter shifts dominate, with 60% unaware of the system's changes. Late developments or turnout could still narrow the gap.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Plaid Cymru to secure the most seats in the May 7, 2026 Senedd election, driven by the first YouGov MRP poll (fieldwork March 9–18) projecting 43 seats for the party under the new 96-seat party-list proportional representation system across 16 constituencies—six short of a majority amid a hung parliament scenario. Reform UK trails at 30 projected seats on 27% vote share, reflecting its surge but inability to overtake Plaid's 33%, while Welsh Labour plummets to 12 seats on 13% amid historic declines and First Minister Eluned Morgan projected to lose her seat. Earlier polls showed tighter Plaid-Reform races, but this MRP solidified Plaid's edge as cost-of-living concerns and voter shifts dominate, with 60% unaware of the system's changes. Late developments or turnout could still narrow the gap.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Plaid Cymru to secure the most seats in the May 7, 2026 Senedd election, driven by the first YouGov MRP poll (fieldwork March 9–18) projecting 43 seats for the party under the new 96-seat party-list proportional representation system across 16 constituencies—six short of a majority amid a hung parliament scenario. Reform UK trails at 30 projected seats on 27% vote share, reflecting its surge but inability to overtake Plaid's 33%, while Welsh Labour plummets to 12 seats on 13% amid historic declines and First Minister Eluned Morgan projected to lose her seat. Earlier polls showed tighter Plaid-Reform races, but this MRP solidified Plaid's edge as cost-of-living concerns and voter shifts dominate, with 60% unaware of the system's changes. Late developments or turnout could still narrow the gap.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Plaid Cymru » à 82%, suivi de « Reform UK » à 16%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 82¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 82% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles » a généré $19.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 12, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles » est « Plaid Cymru » à 82%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 82% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Reform UK » à 16%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.