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États-Unis x Venezuela engagement militaire par...?

Market icon

États-Unis x Venezuela engagement militaire par...?

$87,408,772 Vol.

Oct 31, 2025
Polymarket

$87,408,772 Vol.

Polymarket

30 septembre

$817,622 Vol.

Non

24 octobre

$779,617 Vol.

Non

27 octobre

$696,878 Vol.

Non

31 octobre

$6,816,571 Vol.

Non

1er novembre

$326,121 Vol.

Non

2 novembre

$471,084 Vol.

Non

3 novembre

$229,366 Vol.

Non

5 novembre

$267,724 Vol.

Non

7 novembre

$1,504,728 Vol.

Non

14 novembre

$1,602,553 Vol.

Non

21 novembre

$841,108 Vol.

Non

23 novembre

$55,682 Vol.

Non

24 novembre

$357,095 Vol.

Non

25 novembre

$174,897 Vol.

Non

26 novembre

$292,785 Vol.

Non

27 novembre

$401,690 Vol.

Non

30 novembre

$9,188,344 Vol.

Non

5 décembre

$731,935 Vol.

Non

9 décembre

$310,647 Vol.

Non

15 décembre

$3,803,403 Vol.

Non

23 décembre

$941,599 Vol.

Non

31 décembre

$51,073,021 Vol.

Non

15 janvier 2026

$3,298,466 Vol.

Oui

31 janvier 2026

$931,284 Vol.

Oui

31 mars 2026

$1,444,954 Vol.

Oui

30 juin 2026

$21,402 Vol.

Oui

31 décembre 2026

$28,198 Vol.

Oui

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by October 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$87,408,772
Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Oct 24, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by October 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"États-Unis x Venezuela engagement militaire par...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 27 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "15 janvier 2026" at 100%, followed by "31 janvier 2026" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "États-Unis x Venezuela engagement militaire par...?" has generated $87.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "États-Unis x Venezuela engagement militaire par...?," browse the 27 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "États-Unis x Venezuela engagement militaire par...?" is "15 janvier 2026" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 janvier 2026" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "États-Unis x Venezuela engagement militaire par...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.