Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, with 93% implied probability on "No," driven by longstanding alliance status as a Major Non-NATO Ally and robust bilateral ties in trade, counternarcotics, and security cooperation. Recent developments, including U.S.-Colombia joint military exercises in 2025 and diplomatic visits affirming partnership amid Venezuela border tensions, reinforce stability. No official U.S. statements or actions indicate military escalation, despite rhetorical U.S. focus on Latin American cartels targeting Mexico over Colombia. Absent a major crisis like regime collapse or direct threat, historical non-intervention precedents support traders' low-risk assessment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$24,477 Vol.
$24,477 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$24,477 Vol.
$24,477 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$24,477Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,477Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, with 93% implied probability on "No," driven by longstanding alliance status as a Major Non-NATO Ally and robust bilateral ties in trade, counternarcotics, and security cooperation. Recent developments, including U.S.-Colombia joint military exercises in 2025 and diplomatic visits affirming partnership amid Venezuela border tensions, reinforce stability. No official U.S. statements or actions indicate military escalation, despite rhetorical U.S. focus on Latin American cartels targeting Mexico over Colombia. Absent a major crisis like regime collapse or direct threat, historical non-intervention precedents support traders' low-risk assessment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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